Forecast Insight: Antidiabetics - Switching to new molecule antidiabetics drives market growth

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2

About the Cardiovascular and Metabolic pharmaceutical analysis team 2

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

Strategic scoping and focus 3

Datamonitor insight into the disease market 4

Related reports 5

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 7

Definition of drug classes 7

Current seven major market assessment 8

The antidiabetics market segmented by class 8

Total antidiabetic market 8

Insulin therapies 12

Non-insulin therapies 12

The US dominates diabetes market 14

Historical events 15

Rest of World snapshot 17

Current market assessment 17

Future seven major market assessment 20

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 27

Overview of competitive landscape 27

Actos franchise (pioglitazone; Takeda) 28

Franchise overview 29

Sales forecasts 31

Avandia franchise (rosiglitazone; GlaxoSmithKline) 33

Franchise overview 34

Sales forecasts 38

Byetta (exenatide; Amylin/Eli Lilly) 40

Overview 41

Sales forecast 42

Humalog (insulin lispro; Eli Lilly) 44

Overview 44

Sales forecast 45

Humalog Mix (insulin lispro + insulin lispro protamine; Eli Lilly) 47

Overview 47

Sales forecast 48

Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co) 50

Franchise overview 50

Sales forecast 53

Lantus (insulin glargine; Sanofi-Aventis) 55

Overview 56

Sales forecast 57

Novomix (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk) 58

Overview 59

Sales forecast 60

NovoRapid (insulin aspart + insulin aspart protamine; Novo Nordisk) 62

Overview 62

Sales forecast 63

BIBLIOGRAPHY 65

Journal papers 65

Websites 65

APPENDIX - MARKET ASSUMPTION 66

New product launches 66

Patent expiries 66

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 67

Standard Units 67

Japanese Market Data 67

Derivation of Sales Forecasts and Pricing Trends 68

Forecast methodology 68

About Datamonitor 69

About Datamonitor Healthcare 69

Datamonitor Healthcare's therapy area capabilities 70

About the Disease analysis team 70

Disclaimer 72

List of Tables

Table 1: Antidiabetic sales in the seven major markets by class, 2006-07 10

Table 2: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for osteoarthritis in the 7MM and the Rest of World (ROW), 2007 20

Table 3: Sales forecasts in diabetes in the 7MM ($m), 2007-2017 24

Table 4: Leading branded drug sales ($m) for diabetes, 2007-2017 28

Table 5: Actos: key facts 29

Table 6: Actoplus Met: key facts 29

Table 7: Duetact: key facts 30

Table 8: Sales forecast ($m) for the Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 31

Table 9: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Actos franchise, 2007-17 33

Table 10: Avandia: key facts 34

Table 11: Avandamet: key facts 34

Table 12: Avandaryl: key facts 35

Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for the Avandia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 38

Table 14: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Avandia franchise, 2007-17 40

Table 15: Byetta: key facts 41

Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 42

Table 17: Impacting factors on the revenues of Byetta, 2007-17 43

Table 18: Humalog: key facts 44

Table 19: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 45

Table 20: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17 46

Table 21: Humalog Mix: key facts 47

Table 22: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog Mix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 48

Table 23: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17 49

Table 24: Januvia: key facts 50

Table 25: Janumet: key facts 51

Table 26: Sales forecast ($m) for the Januvia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 53

Table 27: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Januvia franchise, 2007-17 55

Table 28: Lantus: key facts 56

Table 29: Sales forecast ($m) for Lantus for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 57

Table 30: Impacting factors on the revenues of Lantus, 2007-17 58

Table 31: Novomix: key facts 59

Table 32: Sales forecast ($m) for Novomix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 60

Table 33: Impacting factors on the revenues of Novomix, 2007-17 61

Table 34: NovoRapid: key facts 62

Table 35: Sales forecast ($m) for NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 63

Table 36: Impacting factors on the revenues of NovoRapid, 2007-17 64

Table 37: Datamonitor's launch dates for diabetes products in the 7MM, 2007-2017 66

List of Figures

Figure 1: Diabetes sales in the US, 5EU and Japan, ($ billion), 2004-07 9

Figure 2: Diabetes market sales by class in the 7MM, 2004-07 11

Figure 3: Sales performance of the US, 5EU and Japanese diabetes markets, 2006-07 15

Figure 4: Key events impacting the diabetes market 2005-2008 17

Figure 5: Annual global sales in the diabetes market, ($m), 2004-07 18

Figure 6: ROW vs. 7MM sales ($m) split in the diabetes market, 2007 19

Figure 7: Diabetes sales by class in the 7MM, 2007-2017 21

Figure 8: Market share of drug classes for diabetes, 2007 vs. 2017 23

Figure 9: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Actos franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 32

Figure 10: Glitazone market split in the 7MM - Actos vs Avandia (2004-2010) 37

Figure 11: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 39

Figure 12: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Byetta in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 43

Figure 13: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 46

Figure 14: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog mix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 49

Figure 15: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Januvia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 54

Figure 16: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Lantus in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 58

Figure 17: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Novomix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 61

Figure 18: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for NovoRapid in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 64

Figure 19: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antidiabetic drugs in the 7MM, 2007-2016 66

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