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BioPortfolio | Urch Publishing Reports | How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices

How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices

A step-by-step guide to accurately forecasting the price of generic drugs over a 3 year period

“Finally. A model for predicting the price fall of generics – proven to have worked for 99% of drugs”

It has long been recognised that prices paid by chemists and doctors for a generic product decline in the weeks and months after generic launch and patent expiry. But calculating how quickly this happens can often only be guessed at - until now

How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.

Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine will fall after patent expiry and launch.

The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.

The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year's work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120 real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price decay.

The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the brand value of the product.

20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry.

The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing) rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high enough to allow free pricing.

5 Reasons to Invest in this Report

* Stop using "rule of thumb" to calculate the decline in price

* Adopt the suggested methodology immediately

* Easily understandable, designed for the non-statistician

* Follow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet models

* Adjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launch

This unique guide is a must have for all:

* Pricing and reimbursement executives

* Marketing Managers in Generic Drug Companies

* Strategy directors in pharmaceutical companies

* Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets

Buy this model and get a year's FREE subscription to PROfesy CR an online modelling tool to forecast generic erosion.

Table of Contents:

1. Summary

2. Introduction

3. Mechanism

4. Background to the study

- Modelling

- Reimbursement

-Brand value

-Regional factors

6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price 10 7.

Conclusion

Appendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence Holders 20

Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40 References

List of Figures Figure

Figure 1. Generic Price Decay

Figure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)

Figure 3. D Factor used in calculations

Figure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factors

Figure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006

Figure 6. D Factor used in calculations

Figure 7. Enter reimbursement price in Spreadsheet

Figure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 months

Figure 9. Estimate number of licence holders

Figure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 months

Figure 11. Find appropriate calculation table

Figure 12. Number of generic licence holders may vary

Figure 13. Find 36 monthly values

Figure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement price

Figure 15. Calculate the % of original price each month

Figure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement price

Figure 17. Final Generic Forecast 18

Authors:

Charles Joynson

fter developing a successful sales career with Napp, Fisons, Baker Norton and IVAX, Charles was involved in the management of several major projects within IVAX. He spent his final 3 years there as Business Information Manager, before founding WaveData in 2000.

Dario Ciraki

When the project began, Dario was lecturing in statistics at the London School of Economics. Since then Dario has been Senior Statistician at Insightful.

Publication Date March 2009

Pages 41

Figures 18
Price: $3,850.00 / €2,549.86

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