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BioPortfolio | Scientia Veritas | ScientiaVision Product Pinpoint - The New Vaccines

ScientiaVision Product Pinpoint - The New Vaccines

Vaccines approved in the last five years have not only improved on previous products, but have created entirely new markets addressing patients of all ages. Merck's RotaTeq and GlaxoSmithKline's Rotarix rotavirus vaccines are intended for infants, Merck's Gardasil and GlaxoSmithKline's Cervarix (not yet approved in the United States) human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are intended for female patients aged 9 to 26, GlaxoSmithKline's Twinrix provides protection against both hepatitis A and hepatitis B for patients aged 18 and over, and Merck's Zostavax prevents herpes zoster (shingles) in patients aged 60 and over.

Vaccines in new therapeutic areas have created entirely new market segments and expanded the target population for vaccines. Coupled with increased emphasis on immunization worldwide, expensive cancer vaccines on the horizon, and increased immunization in emerging markets, the vaccines market is exploding faster than imagined possible just a few years ago. New blockbuster vaccines have completely changed the face of the market. Leading products and product lines in 2008 totaled US$10.0 billion (€6.9 billion) and included the following:

o Prevnar (Wyeth): 2008 sales of US$2.7 billion (€1.9 billion);

o Gardasil (Merck): 2008 sales of US$1.4 billion (€959 million), sales estimated at US$2.3 billion (€1.6 billion) when counting Gardasil sales by Merck, Sanofi Pasteur MSD, and CSL;

o ProQuad/M-M-R II/Varivax (Merck): 2008 sales of US$1.3 billion (€867 million);

o Infanrix/Pediarix (GlaxoSmithKline): 2008 sales of US$1.3 billion (€859 million);

o Hepatitis Vaccines (GlaxoSmithKline): 2008 sales of US$1.2 billion (€838 million);

o Polio/Whooping Cough/Hib Vaccines (Sanofi Pasteur): 2008 sales of US$1.1 billion (€768 million); and

o Influenza Vaccines (Sanofi Pasteur): 2008 sales of US$1.1 billion (€736 million).

The worldwide market for vaccines has more than doubled in three years, from US$11.6 billion (€9.4 billion) in 2005 to US$25.2 billion (€16.5 billion) in 2008, having grown at a compound annual rate of 31.8% (27.6% for Euros). The market has primarily been driven by the billion-dollar products Prevnar; Gardasil; Merck's ProQuad/M-M-R II/Varivax line; Infanrx and Pediarix; GlaxoSmithKline's hepatitis line; Sanofi Pasteur's line of polio/whooping cough/Hib vaccines; and Sanofi Pasteur's line of influenza vaccines.

For the forecast period, SV projects that sales will more than double again to US$50.7 billion (€34.7 billion) in 2013, reflecting compound annual growth of 21.7% (19.2% for Euros). Growth will be driven by the following:

o Introduction of improved, high-value vaccines, such as those for pneumococcus and meningococcus;

o Continued growth in HPV vaccines as more countries put them on national immunization lists;

o Growth in sales of influenza vaccines for seasonal use and pandemic preparedness;

o Growth in sales of hepatitis vaccines;

o Introduction of improved travel and endemic vaccines;

o Increased immunization rates in developing countries;

o Increased immunization rates in Japan; and

o The introduction of expensive autologous cancer vaccines.

This report breaks the market down by regions (U.S., Europe, Japan, India, China, and rest of the world), as well as by product categories (cancer, hepatitis, influenza, meningococcus and pneumococcus, rotavirus, travel and endemic, and other), with historical, base year, and forecast data for each market segment. Market shares are provided for 2005 through 2008.

Notes on the Data

The base year for this report is 2008. Historical data cover 2005 through 2007, and forecasts cover 2009 through 2013. All data are presented at the level of product sales by manufacturers.

All data are presented in both U.S. dollars and Euros. Corporate financial data reported in currencies other than U.S. dollars or Euros have been converted into both U.S. dollars and Euros.

Scientia Veritas (SV) used average exchange rates for the year in making conversions. For 2005, US$1 = €0.8045 and €1 = US$1.2430; for 2006, US$1 = €0.7970 and €1 = US$1.2547; for 2007, US$1 = €0.7308 and €1 = US$1.3683; and for 2008, US$1 = €0.6834 and €1 = US$1.4633. For 2009 and forward, the 2008 exchange rates were used. Corporate financial data was obtained from filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC; Washington, DC) that included quarterly reports, and 10K and 20F annual filings; annual reports; and press releases.

Market estimates were also based on both primary and secondary research.

Published March 2009

215 pages, 75 exhibits

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