The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2012 Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Key findings 3
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe 5
Summary of analysis 9
PharmaVitae Universe and Peer Set overviews 11
PharmaVitae Universe overview 11
Big Pharma overview 13
Mid Pharma overview 15
Biotech overview 17
Japan Pharma overview 19
Peer Set analysis 21
The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2006-12 CAGR of 3.2% 21
Peer sets will exhibit significantly different growth rates over 2006-12 23
Company analysis 24
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by company, 2006-12 24
Company 2006 sales x compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 matrix 26
Peer sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix 28
Scale limit of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix 30
Therapy area analysis 32
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area, 2006-12 32
Therapy area compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 34
Peer Set therapy area focus, 2006 36
Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus 38
Molecule type analysis 40
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type, 2006-12 40
Molecule type compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 42
Peer Set molecule type focus, 2006 43
Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type 45
Degree of small molecule focus is a key determinant of generic risk 47
Launches and expiries analysis 49
Launch / Core / Expiry (LCE) methodology 49
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 55
The rest of this report 57
CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA 61
Key findings 61
Big Pharma introduction 63
Big Pharma members 63
Big Pharma overview 64
Big Pharma sales outlook 65
Big Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 65
Big Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 69
Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 70
Big Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 71
Big Pharma therapy area analysis 73
Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 73
Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 75
Big Pharma molecule type analysis 77
Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 77
Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 79
Big Pharma launches and expiries analysis 80
Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 80
Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 82
CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA 86
Key findings 86
Mid Pharma introduction 88
Mid Pharma members 88
Mid Pharma overview 89
Mid Pharma sales outlook 91
Mid Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 91
Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 93
Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 94
Mid Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 95
Mid Pharma therapy area analysis 97
Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 97
Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 99
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis 100
Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 100
Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 101
Mid Pharma launches and expiries analysis 102
Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 102
Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 104
CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH 108
Key findings 108
Biotech introduction 110
Biotech members 110
Biotech overview 111
Biotech sales outlook 113
Biotech sales forecasts, 2006-12 113
Biotech peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 115
Biotech sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 116
Biotech change in annual sales, 2006-12 118
Biotech therapy area analysis 120
Biotech by therapy area sales, 2006 120
Biotech by therapy area sales, 2012 121
Biotech molecule type analysis 122
Biotech by molecule type focus, 2006 122
Biotech by molecule type focus, 2012 124
Biotech launches and expiries analysis 125
Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 125
Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 127
CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA 131
Key findings 131
Japan Pharma introduction 133
Japan Pharma members 133
Japan Pharma overview 134
Japan Pharma sales outlook 136
Japan Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 136
Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 138
Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 139
Japan Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 140
Japan Pharma therapy area analysis 142
Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 142
Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 143
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis 144
Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 144
Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 145
Japan Pharma launches and expiries analysis 146
Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 146
Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 148
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 151
References 151
Exchange rates 151
List of Tables
Table 1: PharmaVitae Company Universe by Peer Set 7
Table 2: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report) 8
Table 3: Summary of analysis 9
Table 4: PharmaVitae universe sales forecast by company ($m), 2006-12 24
Table 5: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 32
Table 6: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12 40
Table 7: Big Pharma members 63
Table 8: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 65
Table 9: Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 80
Table 10: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 82
Table 11: Mid Pharma members 88
Table 12: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 91
Table 13: Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 102
Table 14: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 104
Table 15: Biotech members 110
Table 16: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 113
Table 17: Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 125
Table 18: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 127
Table 19: Japan Pharma members 133
Table 20: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 136
Table 21: Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 146
Table 22: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 148
Table 23: Exchange rates, 2007 151
List of Figures
Figure 1: PharmaVitae Universe overview 11
Figure 2: Big Pharma overview 13
Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview 15
Figure 4: Biotech overview 17
Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview 19
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe by Peer Set sales ($m), 2006-12 21
Figure 7: Peer Set sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 23
Figure 8: Company 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix 26
Figure 9: Peer Sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix 28
Figure 10: Scale limit of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix 30
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 33
Figure 12: Therapy area compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 34
Figure 13: Peer Set therapy area focus (%), 2006 36
Figure 14: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus 38
Figure 15: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12 41
Figure 16: Molecule type compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 42
Figure 17: Peer Set molecule type focus (%), 2006 43
Figure 18: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type 45
Figure 19: Small molecule focus (%), 2006 x Change in sales of expiry portfolio (%), 2006-12 47
Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline's launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 50
Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline's expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 51
Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline's core portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 52
Figure 23: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 53
Figure 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 55
Figure 25: Big Pharma overview 64
Figure 26: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 67
Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 69
Figure 28: Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 70
Figure 29: Big Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 71
Figure 30: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 73
Figure 31: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 75
Figure 32: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 77
Figure 33: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 79
Figure 34: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 84
Figure 35: Mid Pharma overview 89
Figure 36: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 92
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 93
Figure 38: Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 94
Figure 39: Mid Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 95
Figure 40: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 97
Figure 41: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 99
Figure 42: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 100
Figure 43: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 101
Figure 44: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 106
Figure 45: Biotech overview 111
Figure 46: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 114
Figure 47: Biotech peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 115
Figure 48: Biotech sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 116
Figure 49: Biotech change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 118
Figure 50: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 120
Figure 51: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 121
Figure 52: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2006 122
Figure 53: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2012 124
Figure 54: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 129
Figure 55: Japan Pharma overview 134
Figure 56: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 137
Figure 57: Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 138
Figure 58: Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 139
Figure 59: Japan Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 140
Figure 60: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 142
Figure 61: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 143
Figure 62: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 144
Figure 63: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 145
Figure 64: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 149