Global Antivirals Market Analysis & Forecasts 2008-2023

1 Executive Summary
1.1 Aims of This Report
1.2 A Brief Overview of the Chapters

2 Introduction
2.1 What is a Virus?
2.2 History of Virology
2.2.1 Origin of Viruses
2.2.2 Historical Developments in Virology
2.3 Classification of Viruses
2.3.1 DNA Viruses
2.3.2 RNA Viruses
2.3.3 Reverse Transcribing Viruses
2.4 Introduction to Viral Infections
2.4.1 Viral Life Cycle
2.4.2 Intrinsic Human Defences against Virus
2.5 How Do Antivirals Work?
2.5.1 Approach to Life Cycle Management
2.5.1.1 Before Cell Entry
2.5.1.2 During Viral Synthesis
2.5.1.3 Release Phase
2.5.2 Immune System Modulating
2.6 Antivirals Battle Highly Mutational Viral Genomes
2.7 The World Anti-Infective Market
2.7.1 Market Shares

3 The Global Market for Anti-Viral Drugs, 2008-2023
3.1 The Global Anti-Viral Market Generated High Revenues in 2007
3.1.1 Leading Segments in the Global Anti-Viral Market
3.1.2 Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors, Immunoglobulin, Protease Inhibitors and Vaccine Segments
3.2 Global Anti-Viral Market Forecast, 2008-2023
3.3 Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, 2008-2023
3.4 The Rise of the Hepatitis Segment from 2008 to 2013
3.5 The HIV Market Impeded by Patent Issues
3.5.1 Anti-HIV Agents Facing Looming Patent Expiries
3.5.2 Controversy Surrounding Patent Rights
3.6 The Influenza Segment Growth is Hampered by Conflicts 
3.7 The Global Anti-Viral Market Will Undergo Shift
3.8 Leading Anti-Viral Brands and Forecast, 2008-2023
3.8.1 Will Tamiflu Retain its Leadership Position?
3.8.2 Combination Therapy Deemed Most Effective
3.8.3 Pegasys-Ribavirin Combination Therapy
3.8.4 Atripla – the Way Forward?
3.9 The Anti-Viral Market and Investment Activities

4 Factors Affecting the World Anti-Viral Market, 2008-2023
4.1 SWOT Analysis of the Anti-Viral Market
4.2 There is Much Reason for Optimism in the Anti-Viral Market
4.2.1 Drug Resistance is a Major Concern, but Stimulates Research Activity
4.2.2 Chronic Indications Ensure Long-Term Demand for Antivirals
4.2.3 Outbreaks of Viral Infections Give Rise to Major Global Public Health Crises
4.2.4 Low Diagnostic Rate Means that the Majority of Patients Are Unaware of Their Infections
4.3 Current Antiviral Treatments Marred by High Toxicity and Low Patient Compliance
4.4 The Threat of Bio-generic Penetration
4.4.1 Looming Patent Expiry Threatens Some Leading Brands
4.4.2 Does the Pipeline Have Enough Potential to Replace the Aging Brands?
4.5 Variability of Novel Targets and Mechanisms
4.6 Investment and Commercial Obstacles
4.6.1 Low Prevalence of Treatable Viral Diseases
4.6.2 Low Profitability from the Developing Countries
4.7 The Market Needs to Overcome Economic and Political Obstacles to Gain Access to Patients in Need
4.7.1 Will the Expanding Patient Population Drive Market Growth? A Case Study of the HIV Market
4.7.2 Expensiveness of Antiviral Treatments Forces Market Exclusivity and Limits Market Growth
4.7.3 Conjoint Effort from the Public and Private Domains to Achieve Greater Accessibility is a Positive Step Forward 
4.8 How Will the Manufacturers Answer to Public Demands for Enhancing Treatment Availability?
4.8.1 Production Rate Unable to Meet Demands
4.8.2 The Controversy Towards Overriding Patent Rights
4.9 Are Vaccines Friends or Foes to the Antiviral Market?

5 Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, 2008-2023
5.1 GSK, Roche, Merck, Gilead Sciences and Bristol-Myers Squibb
5.2 Is GSK’s Market Dominance in Jeopardy?
5.3 Roche’s Pipeline
5.4 What is Merck’s Competitive Edge in the Antiviral Market?
5.5 Gilead Sciences and Bristol-Myers Squibb Carve into the HIV Market

6 Leading Antiviral Brands, Forecasts and Analyses, 2008-2023
6.1 Top 15 Marketed Antivirals of 2007
6.2 Tamiflu
6.3 Gardasil
6.4 Valtrex
6.5 Pegasys
6.6 Truvada
6.7 Varivax
6.8 Synagis
6.9 Reyataz
6.10 Kaletra
6.11 Sustiva
6.12 Atripla
6.13 Combivir
6.14 Peg-Intron
6.15 Epzicom
6.16 Viread

7 Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Forecasts and Analysis, 2008-2023
7.1 Sales of Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets in 2007
7.2 Market Performance of Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Nations, 2008-2023
7.3 Will the US Retain Dominance?
7.4 Other Industrialised Countries to Undergo Steady Growth
7.5 How Will the Leading Developing Countries Fare in the Global Antivirals  Market?

8 Promising Anti-Viral Technologies and Pipeline Developments
8.1 HIV Pipeline Development
8.1.1 Research Direction
8.1.2 Viral Enzymes as Targets
8.1.3 NNRTI
8.1.3.1 Intelence
8.1.3.2 Rilpivirine
8.1.4 NRTI
8.1.4.1 Apricitabine
8.1.5 Host Proteins as Targets
8.1.6 Viral-Entry Inhibitors: Attachment, Entry and Fusion Inhibitors
8.1.6.1 Selzentry/Celsentri
8.1.6.2 Vicriviroc
8.1.7 Integrase Inhibitors
8.1.7.1 Isentress
8.1.7.2 Elvitegravir
8.1.8 Maturation Inhibitors
8.1.8.1 Bevirimat
8.2 Hepatitis Pipeline Development
8.2.1 Research Direction
8.2.2 Interferons
8.2.2.1 Albuferon
8.2.3 NS3 Protease Inhibitors
8.2.3.1 Telaprevir
8.2.3.2 Boceprevir
8.2.4 Polymerase Inhibitors
8.2.4.1 R7128
8.3 Novel Technologies Head the Next Wave of Anti-Viral Drug Exploration
8.3.1 Could Monoclonal Antibodies Surpass the Dominant Small-Molecules?
8.3.2 RNA Interference Technology Raises Investment Interest

9 Interviews with Relevant Experts – Discussion of Current and Future Trends
9.1 Interview 1: Professor Erik De Clercq, Emeritus Professor, Rega Institute for Medical Research, K.U. Leuven, Belgium.
9.1.1 Promising Sub-Markets 
9.1.2 Market Drivers and Restraints
9.1.3 Promising R&D Programmes
9.1.4 Market Direction
9.2 Interview 2: Dr. Michael Kinch, VP, Research and Development, Functional Genetics, Maryland, USA
9.2.1 Promising Sub-Markets
9.2.2 Market Drivers and Restraints
9.2.3 Arguments for Host-Oriented Therapeutic Approach
9.2.4 Biologicals Versus Small Molecules

10 Conclusions
10.1 Excitement Surrounds the Antivirals Market
10.2 The Next Market Leader
10.3 Hepatitis Segment Drives Innovative Antiviral Research
10.4 Pipeline Development
10.5 The Future of Antivirals

List of Tables
Table 2.1, Historical Developments in Virology
Table 2.2, Categorisation of Clinically Significant Viruses 
Table 2.3, The World Anti-Infective Market, Sales ($bn), 12 months to Q1 2008 
Table 3.1, Antiviral Therapies Blockbusters, Sales ($m) and Market Share (%), 2007
Table 3.2, Global Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn) and Growth (%), 2006-2013, 2018, 2023
Table 3.3, Global Antiviral Market Breakdown by Disease Area, 2006 and 2007
Table 3.4, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, Sales ($bn) and Annual Growth (%), 2006-2013
Table 3.5, Market Performance of the Hepatitis Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
Table 3.6, Marketed Antiviral Therapies for HIV/AIDS, Sales ($m), 2007
Table 3.7, Market Performance of the HIV Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
Table 3.8, Market Performance of the Influenza Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
Table 3.9, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2007, 2013, 2018 and 2023
Table 3.10, Top 15 Anti-Viral Brands, Sales ($m) and Growth (%), 2007
Table 3.11, Top 15 Anti-Viral Brands, Sales ($m) and Growth (%), 2006-2013
Table 4.1, SWOT Analysis of the Antiviral Market, 2008
Table 4.2, Antivirals with Recent or Imminent Patent Expiration
Table 4.3, Antiviral Patents Approved in the United States
Table 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, Sales ($bn), 2007
Table 6.1, Sales of Tamiflu ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.2, Sales of Gardasil ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.3, Sales of Valtrex ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.4, Sales of Pegasys ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.5, Sales of Truvada ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.6, Sales of Varivax ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.7, Sales of Synagis ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.8, Sales of Reyataz ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.9, Sales of Kaletra ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.10, Sales of Sustiva ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.11, Sales of Atripla ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.12, Sales of Combivir ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.13, Sales of Peg-Intron ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.14, Sales of Epzicom ($m), 2006-2013
Table 6.15, Sales of Viread ($m), 2006-2013
Table 7.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($), Market Share (%) and Annual Growth (%), 2007
Table 7.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($m), 2007-2013, 2018, 2023
Table 7.3, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Market Share (%) and CAGR (%), 2007 and 2013
Table 8.1, HIV Life Cycle and Potential Targets for Antiretrovirals
Table 8.2, Selected Viral Enzymes Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
Table 8.3, Selected Entry Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
Table 8.4, Selected Integrase Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
Table 8.5, Selected Interferons in Late Stage Development
Table 8.6, Selected NS3 Protease Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
Table 8.7, Selected Polymerase Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
Table 8.8, Commercial Development of Antiviral mAbs
Table 10.1, Global Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn) and Growth (%), 2006-2013, 2018, 2023
Table 10.2, Antiviral Therapies Blockbusters, Sales ($m) and Market Share (%), 2007

List of Figures
Figure 2.1, Basic Structures of the Influenza Virus
Figure 2.2, Life Cycle of a Typical RNA Virus
Figure 2.3, The World Anti-Infective Market, Sales ($bn), 12 months to Q1 2008
Figure 2.4, The World Anti-Infective Market, Market Share (%), 12 months to Q1 2008
Figure 3.1, Leading Disease Areas in the Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn), 2007
Figure 3.2, Leading Drug Classes in the Anti-Viral Market, Sales 2007 ($bn)
Figure 3.3, Global Anti-Viral Market Sales ($m), 2006-2013   
Figure 3.4, Global Antiviral Market by Disease Area, Market Share (%), 2007
Figure 3.5, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, Sales ($m), 2006-2013
Figure 3.6, Global Hepatitis Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
Figure 3.7, Global HIV Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
Figure 3.8, Global Influenza Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
Figure 3.9, Global Antiviral Market by Disease Area, Market Share (%), 2013
Figure 3.10, Market Share of the Leading Anti-Viral Drugs (%), 2007
Figure 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, Market Share (%), 2007
Figure 6.1, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Therapies, Sales ($m), 2007
Figure 6.2, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Therapies, Annual Growth (%), 2007
Figure 6.3, Sales of Tamiflu ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.4, Sales of Gardasil ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.5, Sales of Valtrex ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.6, Sales of Pegasys ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.7, Sales of Truvada ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.8, Sales of Varivax ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.9, Sales of Synagis ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.10, Sales of Reyataz ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.11, Sales of Kaletra ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.12, Sales of Sustiva ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.13, Sales of Atripla ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.14, Sales of Combivir ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.15, Sales of Peg-Intron ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.16, Sales of Epzicom ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 6.17, Sales of Viread ($m), 2006-2023
Figure 7.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($m), 2007
Figure 7.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Market Share (%), 2007
Figure 7.3, Antivirals in the US Market, Sales ($m), 2008-2013
Figure 7.4, Antivirals in Other Leading Industrialised Countries, Sales ($m), 2008-2013
Figure 7.5, Antivirals in China and India, Sales ($m), 2008-2013