The Cancer Market Outlook to 2011

Executive Summary 10
Patient potential 10
Global market analysis 11
Analysis of potential future cancer blockbusters 12
Leading players in the cancer market 13

Chapter 1 Patient potential 16
Summary 16
Introduction 17
Disease description 17
Defining patient potential 19
Limitations of cancer epidemiology data 19
Lung cancer 20
Disease description 20
Epidemiology 23
Forecast prevalence 24
Colorectal cancer 25
Disease description 25
Epidemiology 27
Forecast prevalence 28
Breast cancer 30
Disease description 30
Epidemiology 32
Forecast prevalence 33
Ovarian cancer 35
Disease description 35
Epidemiology 36
Forecast prevalence 37
Uterine and cervical cancer 39
Disease description 39
Epidemiology 40
Forecast prevalence 41
Leukemia 43
Disease description 43
Epidemiology 45
Forecast prevalence 46
Prostate cancer 47
Disease description 47
Epidemiology 49
Forecast prevalence 51
Pancreatic cancer 52
Disease description 52
Epidemiology 53
Forecast prevalence 54
Lymphomas 56
Disease description 56
Epidemiology 57
Forecast prevalence 58

Chapter 2 Global market analysis 62
Summary 62
Introduction 63
Market breakdown by class 64
Leading products 66
Antineoplastics 68
Introduction 68
Analysis of leading antineoplastic therapies 72
Market analysis by drug class 75
Antineoplastic antibiotics 75
Anti-metabolites 80
Alkylating agents 87
Other antineoplastics 90
Antineoplastics sales forecasts to 2011 112
Immunostimulating agents 113
Introduction 113
Analysis of the top 10 immunostimulants 116
Market analysis by drug class 119
Interferons 119
Others 124
Immunostimulants sales forecasts to 2011 128
Immunosuppressive agents 129
Introduction 129
Analysis of top 10 immunosuppressive agents 131
Market analysis 133
Immunosuppressants sales forecasts to 2011 137
Cytostatic hormonal therapies 138
Introduction 138
Analysis of the top 10 cytostatic hormonal therapies 141
Market analysis by drug class 144
LHRH agonists 144
Aromatase inhibitors 149
Anti-estrogens 155
Anti-androgens 159
Cytostatic hormonal therapies sales forecasts to 2011 161
Cancer market forecasts to 2011 162

Chapter 3 Analysis of potential future cancer blockbusters 164
Summary 164
Introduction 165
Drug profiles 166
Phase II pipeline drugs 166
Volociximab (M200) 166
Phase III pipeline drugs 168
Zarnestra (tipifarnib) 168
Sarasar (lonafarnib) 170
Tykerb (lapatinib) 171
Enzastaurin 173
Tasigna (nilotinib) 174
Zactima (vandetanib) 176
Javlor (vinflunine) 178
BiovaxID 179
Drugs in registration 181
Panitumumab 181
Gardasil and Cervarix 183
Recently marketed drugs 185
Tarceva (erlotinib) 185
Sutent (sunitinib) 188
Nexavar (sorafenib) 190
Sprycel (dasatinib) 192

Chapter 4 Leading players in the cancer market 196
Summary 196
Introduction 197
Global market shares 198
Roche 201
Marketed portfolio 201
R&D compounds 203
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 205
Sanofi-Aventis 206
Marketed portfolio 206
R&D compounds 207
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 209
Amgen 210
Marketed portfolio 210
R&D compounds 211
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 212
AstraZeneca 213
Marketed portfolio 213
R&D compounds 214
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 216
Novartis 218
Marketed portfolio 218
R&D compounds 220
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 221
Johnson & Johnson 222
Marketed portfolio 222
R&D compounds 224
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 225
Schering-Plough 227
Marketed portfolio 227
R&D compounds 228
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 229
Lilly 231
Marketed portfolio 231
R&D compounds 232
Cancer portfolio sales forecasts 233

Chapter 5 Appendix 236

Glossary 236

Index 241

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Overview of the etiology of cancer 18
Figure 2.2: Competitive dynamics of the major classes in the global cancer market, 2004–05 65
Figure 2.3: Competitive dynamics of the leading drugs in the global cancer market, 2004–05 67
Figure 2.4: Competitive dynamics of the major antineoplastic classes in the global cancer market, 2004–05 71
Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics of the leading antineoplastic brands in the global cancer market, 2004–05 74
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of drug classes within the global immunostimulant market, 2005 115
Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of the leading immunostimulant brands in the global cancer market, 2004–05 118
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the leading immunosuppressant brands in the global cancer market, 2004–05 133
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of drug classes within the global cytostatic hormonal therapy market, 2005 140
Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the leading cytostatic hormonal therapy brands in the global cancer market, 2004–05 143
Figure 3.11: High potential drugs in late-stage development or that have been recently launched 165
Figure 4.12: Key players in the global cancer market, 2001 & 2005 200

List of Tables
Table 1.1: Epidemiology of lung cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 23
Table 1.2: Forecast epidemiology of lung cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 24
Table 1.3: Epidemiology of colorectal cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 27
Table 1.4: Forecast epidemiology of colorectal cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-1129
Table 1.5: Epidemiology of breast cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 32
Table 1.6: Forecast epidemiology of breast cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 34
Table 1.7: Epidemiology of ovarian cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 37
Table 1.8: Forecast epidemiology of ovarian cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 38
Table 1.9: Epidemiology of uterine cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 40
Table 1.10: Forecast epidemiology of uterine cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 42
Table 1.11: Epidemiology of leukemia across the seven major markets, 2005 45
Table 1.12: Forecast epidemiology of leukemia across the seven major markets, 2006-11 46
Table 1.13: Forecast epidemiology of prostate cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 51
Table 1.14: Epidemiology of pancreatic cancer across the seven major markets, 2005 53
Table 1.15: Forecast epidemiology of pancreatic cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-11 55
Table 1.16: Estimated epidemiology of lymphomas across the seven major markets, 2005 57
Table 1.17: Forecast epidemiology of lymphomas across the seven major markets, 2006-11 59
Table 2.18: Breakdown of the global cancer market by drug class, 2001–05 64
Table 2.19: Leading products in the global cancer market, 2004–05 66
Table 2.20: Breakdown of the global antineoplastics market by drug class, 2001–05 69
Table 2.21: Leading therapies in the global antineoplastics market, 2004–05 72
Table 2.22: Sales forecast for antineoplastic drug classes in the global cancer market, 2005–11 112
Table 2.23: Breakdown of the global immunostimulants market by drug class, 2001–05 114
Table 2.24: Sales of leading immunostimulant brands, 2004–05 116
Table 2.25: Sales forecasts for immunostimulants in the global market, 128
Table 2.26: Breakdown of the global immunosuppressant market by drug class, 2001–05 130
Table 2.27: Sales of leading immunosuppressant brands, 2004–05 131
Table 2.28: Sales forecast for immunosuppressive agents in the global market, 2005–11 137
Table 2.29: Breakdown of the global cytostatic hormonal therapies market by drug class, 2001–05 139
Table 2.30: Leading cytostatic hormonal therapy products in the global cancer market, 2004–05 141
Table 2.31: Sales forecast for cytostatic hormonal therapy drug classes in the global market, 2005–11 161
Table 2.32: Sales forecasts for the global cancer market by drug class, 2005–11 162
Table 4.33: Key players in the global cancer market, 2001–2005 198
Table 4.34: Roche’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 201
Table 4.35: Roche’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 203
Table 4.36: Forecast sales for Roche’s global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 205
Table 4.37: Sanofi-Aventis’ marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 206
Table 4.38: Sanofi-Aventis’ cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 208
Table 4.39: Forecast sales for Sanofi-Aventis’ global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 209
Table 4.40: Amgen’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 210
Table 4.41: Amgen’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 211
Table 4.42: Forecast sales for Amgen’s global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 212
Table 4.43: AstraZeneca’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 213
Table 4.44: AstraZeneca’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 215
Table 4.45: Forecast sales for AstraZeneca’s global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 216
Table 4.46: Novartis’ marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 218
Table 4.47: Novartis’ cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 220
Table 4.48: Forecast sales for Novartis’ global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 221
Table 4.49: J&J’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 222
Table 4.50: J&J’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 224
Table 4.51: Forecast sales for J&J’s global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 225
Table 4.52: Schering-Plough’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 227
Table 4.53: Schering-Plough’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 228
Table 4.54: Forecast sales for Schering-Plough’s global cancer portfolio, 229
Table 4.55: Lilly’s marketed cancer portfolio, 2005 231
Table 4.56: Lilly’s cancer R&D pipeline, 2006 232
Table 4.57: Forecast sales for Lilly’s global cancer portfolio, 2005–11 233