Commercial Insight: Antihormonal Therapy Cancer Brands - Careful lifecycle management needed to preserve brand dominance

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the antihormonal therapy cancer brands market 4
Related reports 5
Upcoming reports 6

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION 8
Definition of the cancer market 8
Antihormonal therapies by ATC class 9
L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs 9
L2B1 - Anti-estrogens 9
L2B2 - Anti-androgens 9
L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors 10

CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS 11
Seven major markets 11
Current market assessment 11
Sales by class 11
Sales by brand 14
Sales by country 16
Future market assessment 18
Sales by class 18
Sales by brand 21
Sales by country 24
Opportunities and threats 27
US 28
Current market assessment 28
Sales by class 28
Sales by brand 30
Future market assessment 31
Sales by class 31
Sales by brand 34
Japan 36
Current market assessment 36
Sales by class 36
Sales by brand 38
Future market assessment 39
Sales by class 39
Sales by brand 42
5EU 44
Current market assessment 44
Sales by class 44
Sales by brand 46
Future market assessment 47
Sales by class 47
Sales by brand 50
France 52
Current market assessment 52
Sales by class 52
Sales by brand 54
Future market assessment 55
Sales by class 55
Sales by brand 58
Germany 60
Current market assessment 60
Sales by class 60
Sales by brand 62
Future market assessment 63
Sales by class 63
Sales by brand 66
Italy 68
Current market assessment 68
Sales by class 68
Sales by brand 70
Future market assessment 71
Sales by class 71
Sales by brand 74
Spain 76
Current market assessment 76
Sales by class 76
Sales by brand 78
Future market assessment 79
Sales by class 79
Sales by brand 82
UK 84
Current market assessment 84
Sales by class 84
Sales by brand 86
Future market assessment 87
Sales by class 87
Sales by brand 90
Rest of World snapshot 92
Current market assessment 92
Global antihormonals market 92
Global LHRH analog market 94
Global anti-estrogens market 96
Global anti-androgens market 98
Global aromatase inhibitors market 100
CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS 102
Brand analysis by class 102
Aromatase inhibitors represent the largest class of antihormonal therapy brands 102
Brand analysis by indication 104
82% of antihormonal brands are approved for breast cancer 104
Brand analysis by company 105
AstraZeneca markets almost half of the antihormonal therapy cancer brands 105
AstraZeneca 107
Novartis 107
Brand analysis by event 108
Faslodex will experience the greatest number of forecast events across the seven major markets 108
Brand analysis by sales growth 109
Anti-estrogen brands are the only antihormonal class showing positive sales growth for 2007-2017 109
Brand versus generic market snapshot 114
Seven major markets 114
Branded products often preferred, despite the availability of cheaper generics 114
US 116
Japan 117
5EU 119
France 120
Germany 121
Italy 122
Spain 124
UK 126

CHAPTER 5 BRAND PROFILES AND FORECASTS 128
Afema (fadrozole; Novartis) 128
Brand profile 128
Brand forecast events* 129
Brand forecast to 2017 129
Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca) 130
Brand profile 130
Brand forecast events 131
Brand forecast to 2017 132
Arimidex set to maintain its blockbuster and gold-standard status despite patent expiry 132
Aromasin (exemestane; Pfizer) 134
Brand profile 134
Brand forecast events 135
Brand forecast to 2017 136
Aromasin fails to match its competitors in-class, although its alternative mechanism of action presents some opportunity 136
Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca) 138
Brand profile 138
Brand forecast events 139
Brand forecast to 2017 140
Upcoming patent expiries set to hamper sales of this class-leading brand 140
Fareston (toremifene; Orion) 141
Brand profile 141
Brand forecast events 142
Brand forecast to 2017 143
Faslodex (fulvestrant; AstraZeneca) 144
Brand profile 144
Brand forecast events 145
Brand forecast to 2017 146
Femara (letrozole; Novartis/Chugai) 147
Brand profile 147
Brand forecast events 148
Brand forecast to 2017 149
Final results from FACE trial could indicate definitive superiority for Femara over Arimidex 149
Lupron (leuprorelin; Takeda/Abbott/TAP/Wyeth) 151
Brand profile 151
Brand forecast events* 152
Brand forecast to 2017 152
Lupron's lifecycle has been extended by the launch of various formulations 152
Nolvadex (tamoxifen; AstraZeneca) 154
Brand profile 154
Brand forecast events* 155
Brand forecast to 2017 155
Advent of aromatase inhibitors and high generic competition continues to threaten brand sales 155
Suprefact (buserelin; Sanofi-Aventis) 157
Brand profile 157
Brand forecast events* 158
Brand forecast to 2017 158
Zoladex (goserelin; AstraZeneca) 159
Brand profile 159
Brand forecast events* 160
Brand forecast to 2017 160
Despite equivalent clinical efficacy to Lupron, Zoladex remains the second best-selling LHRH analog 160

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 162
Country-specific assumptions and events 162
Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US 162
Biennial price cuts in Japan 162
Generic erosion assumptions 162
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 163
Standard units 163
Japanese market data 163
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 163
Forecasts 164
Forecast methodology 164

APPENDIX B 165
Bibliography 165
List of figures 167
Abbreviations 168
Report methodology 169
About Datamonitor 169
About Datamonitor Healthcare 169
Disclaimer 171

List of Tables
Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2008 8
Table 2: Seven major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 11
Table 3: Seven major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 14
Table 4: Individual country sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 16
Table 5: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 18
Table 6: Seven major market forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 21
Table 7: Individual country forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 24
Table 8: US sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 28
Table 9: US sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 30
Table 10: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 31
Table 11: US forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 34
Table 12: Japan sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 36
Table 13: Japan sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 38
Table 14: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017 39
Table 15: Japan forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 42
Table 16: 5EU sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 44
Table 17: 5EU major market sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 46
Table 18: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 47
Table 19: 5EU forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 50
Table 20: France sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 52
Table 21: France sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 54
Table 22: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 55
Table 23: France forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 58
Table 24: Germany sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 60
Table 25: Germany sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 62
Table 26: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 63
Table 27: Germany forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 66
Table 28: Italy sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 68
Table 29: Italy sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 70
Table 30: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 71
Table 31: Italy forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 74
Table 32: Spain sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 76
Table 33: Spain sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 78
Table 34: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 79
Table 35: Spain forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 82
Table 36: UK sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007 84
Table 37: UK sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007 86
Table 38: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class ($m), 2007-2017 87
Table 39: UK forecast sales of antihormonal therapy cancer brands ($m), 2007-2017 90
Table 40: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total antihormonal therapy market sales, 2007 92
Table 41: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total LHRH analog therapy market sales, 2007 94
Table 42: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total anti-estrogen therapy market sales, 2007 96
Table 43: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total anti-androgen therapy market sales, 2007 98
Table 44: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total aromatase inhibitors therapy market sales, 2007 100
Table 45: CAGR (%) of antihormonal therapy cancer brands by drug class, 2007-2017 109
Table 46: CAGR (%) of antihormonal therapy cancer brands, 2007-2017 111
Table 47: Afema: key facts 128
Table 48: Afema forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 129
Table 49: Arimidex: key facts 130
Table 50: Arimidex: brand forecast events 131
Table 51: Arimidex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 132
Table 52: Aromasin: key facts 134
Table 53: Aromasin: brand forecast events 135
Table 54: Aromasin forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 136
Table 55: Casodex: key facts 138
Table 56: Casodex: brand forecast events 139
Table 57: Casodex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 140
Table 58: Fareston: key facts 141
Table 59: Fareston: brand forecast events 142
Table 60: Fareston forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 143
Table 61: Faslodex: key facts 144
Table 62: Faslodex: brand forecast events 145
Table 63: Faslodex forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 146
Table 64: Femara: key facts 147
Table 65: Femara: brand forecast events 148
Table 66: Femara forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 149
Table 67: Lupron: key facts 151
Table 68: Lupron forecast sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 152
Table 69: Nolvadex: key facts 154