Forecast Insight: Antidiabetics - Switching to new molecule antidiabetics drives market growth

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market 4
Related reports 5

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 7
Definition of drug classes 7
Current seven major market assessment 8
The antidiabetics market segmented by class 8
Total antidiabetic market 8
Insulin therapies 12
Non-insulin therapies 12
The US dominates diabetes market 14
Historical events 15
Rest of World snapshot 17
Current market assessment 17
Future seven major market assessment 20

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 27
Overview of competitive landscape 27
Actos franchise (pioglitazone; Takeda) 28
Franchise overview 29
Sales forecasts 31
Avandia franchise (rosiglitazone; GlaxoSmithKline) 33
Franchise overview 34
Sales forecasts 38
Byetta (exenatide; Amylin/Eli Lilly) 40
Overview 41
Sales forecast 42
Humalog (insulin lispro; Eli Lilly) 44
Overview 44
Sales forecast 45
Humalog Mix (insulin lispro + insulin lispro protamine; Eli Lilly) 47
Overview 47
Sales forecast 48
Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co) 50
Franchise overview 50
Sales forecast 53
Lantus (insulin glargine; Sanofi-Aventis) 55
Overview 56
Sales forecast 57
Novomix (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk) 58
Overview 59
Sales forecast 60
NovoRapid (insulin aspart + insulin aspart protamine; Novo Nordisk) 62
Overview 62
Sales forecast 63

BIBLIOGRAPHY 65
Journal papers 65
Websites 65

APPENDIX - MARKET ASSUMPTION 66
New product launches 66
Patent expiries 66
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 67
Standard Units 67
Japanese Market Data 67
Derivation of Sales Forecasts and Pricing Trends 68
Forecast methodology 68
About Datamonitor 69
About Datamonitor Healthcare 69
Datamonitor Healthcare's therapy area capabilities 70
About the Disease analysis team 70
Disclaimer 72

List of Tables
Table 1: Antidiabetic sales in the seven major markets by class, 2006-07 10
Table 2: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for osteoarthritis in the 7MM and the Rest of World (ROW), 2007 20
Table 3: Sales forecasts in diabetes in the 7MM ($m), 2007-2017 24
Table 4: Leading branded drug sales ($m) for diabetes, 2007-2017 28
Table 5: Actos: key facts 29
Table 6: Actoplus Met: key facts 29
Table 7: Duetact: key facts 30
Table 8: Sales forecast ($m) for the Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 31
Table 9: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Actos franchise, 2007-17 33
Table 10: Avandia: key facts 34
Table 11: Avandamet: key facts 34
Table 12: Avandaryl: key facts 35
Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for the Avandia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 38
Table 14: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Avandia franchise, 2007-17 40
Table 15: Byetta: key facts 41
Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 42
Table 17: Impacting factors on the revenues of Byetta, 2007-17 43
Table 18: Humalog: key facts 44
Table 19: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 45
Table 20: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17 46
Table 21: Humalog Mix: key facts 47
Table 22: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog Mix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 48
Table 23: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17 49
Table 24: Januvia: key facts 50
Table 25: Janumet: key facts 51
Table 26: Sales forecast ($m) for the Januvia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 53
Table 27: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Januvia franchise, 2007-17 55
Table 28: Lantus: key facts 56
Table 29: Sales forecast ($m) for Lantus for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 57
Table 30: Impacting factors on the revenues of Lantus, 2007-17 58
Table 31: Novomix: key facts 59
Table 32: Sales forecast ($m) for Novomix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 60
Table 33: Impacting factors on the revenues of Novomix, 2007-17 61
Table 34: NovoRapid: key facts 62
Table 35: Sales forecast ($m) for NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 63
Table 36: Impacting factors on the revenues of NovoRapid, 2007-17 64
Table 37: Datamonitor's launch dates for diabetes products in the 7MM, 2007-2017 66

List of Figures
Figure 1: Diabetes sales in the US, 5EU and Japan, ($ billion), 2004-07 9
Figure 2: Diabetes market sales by class in the 7MM, 2004-07 11
Figure 3: Sales performance of the US, 5EU and Japanese diabetes markets, 2006-07 15
Figure 4: Key events impacting the diabetes market 2005-2008 17
Figure 5: Annual global sales in the diabetes market, ($m), 2004-07 18
Figure 6: ROW vs. 7MM sales ($m) split in the diabetes market, 2007 19
Figure 7: Diabetes sales by class in the 7MM, 2007-2017 21
Figure 8: Market share of drug classes for diabetes, 2007 vs. 2017 23
Figure 9: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Actos franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 32
Figure 10: Glitazone market split in the 7MM - Actos vs Avandia (2004-2010) 37
Figure 11: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 39
Figure 12: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Byetta in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 43
Figure 13: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 46
Figure 14: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog mix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 49
Figure 15: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Januvia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 54
Figure 16: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Lantus in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 58
Figure 17: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Novomix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 61
Figure 18: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for NovoRapid in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 64
Figure 19: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antidiabetic drugs in the 7MM, 2007-2016 66