Forecast Insight: Dyslipidemia - Genericization and negative trial data drive market shrinking

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market 3
Related reports 5
Upcoming related reports 5

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 7
Market definition for this report 7
Current seven major market assessment 8
General overview 8
Overview by class 10
Main brands 12
Overview by country 14
Main events shaping the market to 2008 17
Rest of World snapshot 20
Current market assessment 20
Future seven major market assessment 25
New product launches 31
TriLipix - largest pipeline agent 34
Livalo - another statin will face problems entering all markets 34
Dalcetrapib and anacetrapib - CETP inhibitors still under scrutiny 35
Mipomersen - an injectable antidyslipidemic will be reserved to the very few 35
Fenoglide - another enhanced fenofibrate is available 35
Cordaptive/Tredaptive - the FDA setback is going to prevent rapid growth 35
SPCs - a new horizon? 36
Key clinical trials 36
ENHANCE brings the sales of Zetia and Vytorin down 36
IMPROVE-IT - a promise of better data for Zetia and Vytorin 37
JUPITER spurs Crestor's growth 37
SATURN expected to bring gains for Crestor 37
Patent expiries 38

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 39
Overview of competitive landscape 39
Statins 40
Statins general forecast 41
Lipitor 42
Lipitor's revenue goes down after the patent expiry 45
Crestor 48
Crestor's revenue keeps growing despite the market challenges 49
Statin combinations (C10C0) 53
Vytorin 53
Vytorin's sales stabilize 54
Other (C10A9) 58
Zetia 58
Zetia's revenue is affected by ENHANCE 60
Fibrates 63
Tricor 64
TriCor's patients are a great heritage for TriLipix 64
BIBLIOGRAPHY 68
Journal papers 68
Websites 68
Datamonitor reports 69

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTION 71
New product launches 71
Patent expiries 72
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 73
Standard units 73
Japanese market data 73
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 73
Forecast methodology 73

APPENDIX B 75
Report methodology 75
About Datamonitor 75
About Datamonitor Healthcare 75
About the Disease analysis team 76
Disclaimer 77

List of Tables
Table 1: Seven major market sales of the antidyslipidemic drug classes ($m), 2007 10
Table 2: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for dyslipidemia in the seven major markets (7MM) and the Rest of World (RoW), 2007 23
Table 3: Sales forecasts for antidyslipidemic agents in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 28
Table 4: Summary of pipeline antidyslipidemic agents that are likely to launch with the forecast period, 2007-2017 32
Table 5: Patent expiry dates for the approved antidyslipidemics in the seven major markets, 2008-2017 38
Table 6: Leading branded drug sales ($m) for dyslipidemia in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 39
Table 7: Lipitor: key facts, 2008 43
Table 8: Sales forecast ($m) for Lipitor in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 45
Table 9: Impacting factors on Lipitor revenues, 2008-2017 47
Table 10: Crestor: key facts, 2008 48
Table 11: Sales forecast for Crestor in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 49
Table 12: Impacting factors on Crestor revenues, 2008-2017 52
Table 13: Vytorin: key facts, 2008 54
Table 14: Sales forecast for Vytorin for Dyslipidemia in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2017 55
Table 15: Impacting factors on Vytorin, revenues, 2007-2017 57
Table 16: Zetia: key facts, 2008 59
Table 17: Sales forecast for Zetia in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2017 60
Table 18: Impacting factors on Zetia revenues, 2008-2017 62
Table 19: Tricor: key facts, 2008 64
Table 20: Sales forecast for Tricor in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2017 65
Table 21: Impacting factors on Tricor revenues, 2008-2017 67
Table 22: Datamonitor's launch dates for antidyslipidemics in the 5EU and US, 2008-2017 71
Table 23: Patent expiry dates for the approved antidyslipidemics in the seven major markets, 2008-2017 72

List of Figures
Figure 1: Antidyslipidemic market sales by class in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2004-07 9
Figure 2: Performance of the antidyslipidemic drug classes across the seven major markets (%), 2006-07 11
Figure 3: Market share of Top 10 branded antidyslipidemic agents (%), 2007 13
Figure 4: Market dynamics of the top 10 antidyslipidemia brands ($ billion), 2004-07 14
Figure 5: Breakdown of antidyslipidemic market share for seven major markets by sales value and volume, split by country (%), 2007 15
Figure 6: Sales performance of the US, 5EU and Japan antidyslipidemic markets (%), 2006-07 16
Figure 7: Antidyslipidemic market sales in the US, 5EU and Japan ($ billion), 2004-07 17
Figure 8: Key events impacting the antidyslipidemic market, 2004-08 18
Figure 9: Rest of World versus seven major market sales in the antidyslipidemic market ($ billion and %), 2007 21
Figure 10: Global antidyslipidemic sales growth by region (%), 2004-07 22
Figure 11: Annual global sales in the antidyslipidemic market ($ billion), 2004-07 24
Figure 12: Antidyslipidemic value sales by class in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2007-2017 26
Figure 13: Antidyslipidemic volume sales by class in the seven major markets (SU billion), 2007-2017 27
Figure 14: Market share of drug classes for dyslipidemia (%), 2007 and 2017 30
Figure 15: Impact of key events on the antidyslipidemic market, 2008-2017 31
Figure 16: Forecast sales of statins and statin single pill combinations ($ billion), 2007-2017 41
Figure 17: Sales forecast for Lipitor in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2007-2017 46
Figure 18: Sales forecast for Crestor in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2008-2017 51
Figure 19: Sales forecast for Vytorin in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2008-2017 56
Figure 20: Sales forecast for Zetia in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2017 61
Figure 21: Sales forecast for Tricor in the seven major markets ($ billion), 2008-2017 66