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| Biotech Tracker: Focus Limited to New Drugs at H&Q |
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January
20th 2004.
When
the genomics bubble burst two years ago, biotech companies scrambled
to revamp their business plans, focusing on internal drug
development rather than more nebulous plans like “understanding
the human genome to add value to drug development platforms.” At
last year’s JP Morgan (formerly H&Q) Healthcare Conference, we
were treated to “restructuring,” “refocusing,” and
“revamping,” with no mention of “genomics” or “proteomics.”
This year’s meeting, held last week in San Francisco, featured
companies presenting the results of the first year of operations
under their new plans. Although several promising drugs were
highlighted, the excitement surrounding the ultimate potential of
biotech was replaced by sobering predictions about the market value
of specific drugs.
Investors
are correct that drugs will be the key drivers of biotech stocks
over the next year or two. But is Velcade the only reason to be
interested in Millennium (NASDAQ: MLNM)? Is Abgenix’s (NASDAQ:
ABGX) only asset ABX-EGF?
Some
company presentations bordered on the absurd. Onyx’s (NASDAQ: ONXX)
CEO spent 25 minutes discussing the clinical trial progress of
BAY45-9006, going so far as to discuss individual patients’
response to the drug. Although this drug has modestly better than
average probability of approval for a phase II cancer drug, it is a
shame that Onyx has had to give up everything else. Its viral-based
drug program, led by Onyx-015, was more novel and ultimately had
more potential to add value to both patient care and Onyx
shareholders.
Dyax
(NASDAQ: DYAX) also spent all its time talking about DX-88 and
DX-890 rather than including discussion of its promising phage
display technology. Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) focused on its
drugs over its more valuable antibody conjugation platform.
Millennium ignored its leading genomics and proteomics expertise in
favor of discussion of Velcade and Integrilin. Even Abgenix, which
was brave enough to say that, “not all technology platforms are
created equally,” spent half of its presentation discussing
ABX-EGF.
Ultimately,
genomics, proteomics, and other technologies will deliver on their
promise. Biotech companies and investors will regain their
excitement as biotech discoveries surprise doubters with their power
to revolutionize biology and medicine. This is not to say that Dyax
and the others do not have promising drugs in development. But the
true value of the biotech sector is its drug pipeline combined with
its ability to revolutionize medicine. The tides have turned such
that companies will now leverage their drug discovery engines to
allow their scientific platforms to re-emerge.
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