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Biotech Tracker: Focus Limited to New Drugs at H&Q
January 20th 2004. When the genomics bubble burst two years ago, biotech companies scrambled to revamp their business plans, focusing on internal drug development rather than more nebulous plans like “understanding the human genome to add value to drug development platforms.” At last year’s JP Morgan (formerly H&Q) Healthcare Conference, we were treated to “restructuring,” “refocusing,” and “revamping,” with no mention of “genomics” or “proteomics.” This year’s meeting, held last week in San Francisco, featured companies presenting the results of the first year of operations under their new plans. Although several promising drugs were highlighted, the excitement surrounding the ultimate potential of biotech was replaced by sobering predictions about the market value of specific drugs.

Investors are correct that drugs will be the key drivers of biotech stocks over the next year or two. But is Velcade the only reason to be interested in Millennium (NASDAQ: MLNM)? Is Abgenix’s (NASDAQ: ABGX) only asset ABX-EGF?

Some company presentations bordered on the absurd. Onyx’s (NASDAQ: ONXX) CEO spent 25 minutes discussing the clinical trial progress of BAY45-9006, going so far as to discuss individual patients’ response to the drug. Although this drug has modestly better than average probability of approval for a phase II cancer drug, it is a shame that Onyx has had to give up everything else. Its viral-based drug program, led by Onyx-015, was more novel and ultimately had more potential to add value to both patient care and Onyx shareholders.

Dyax (NASDAQ: DYAX) also spent all its time talking about DX-88 and DX-890 rather than including discussion of its promising phage display technology. Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) focused on its drugs over its more valuable antibody conjugation platform. Millennium ignored its leading genomics and proteomics expertise in favor of discussion of Velcade and Integrilin. Even Abgenix, which was brave enough to say that, “not all technology platforms are created equally,” spent half of its presentation discussing ABX-EGF.

Ultimately, genomics, proteomics, and other technologies will deliver on their promise. Biotech companies and investors will regain their excitement as biotech discoveries surprise doubters with their power to revolutionize biology and medicine. This is not to say that Dyax and the others do not have promising drugs in development. But the true value of the biotech sector is its drug pipeline combined with its ability to revolutionize medicine. The tides have turned such that companies will now leverage their drug discovery engines to allow their scientific platforms to re-emerge.

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