Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations.
Summary of "Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations."
Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society-particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.
Affiliation
NCAS Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, , Reading, UK.
Journal Details
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
ISSN: 1364-503X
Pages: 5173-84
Links
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20956367
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Markov Chains
A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.
Middle East
The countries of southwest Asia and northeastern Africa usually considered as extending from Libya on the west to Afghanistan on the east. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988)
Fractional Precipitation
A method which uses specific precipitation reactions to separate or collect substances from a solution.
Arabia
The great peninsula of southwest Asia comprising most of the present countries of the Middle East. It has been known since the first millennium B.C. In early times it was divided into Arabia Petraea, the northwest part, the only part ever conquered, becoming a Roman province; Arabia Deserta, the northern part between Syria and Mesopotamia; and Arabia Felix, the main part of the peninsula but by some geographers restricted to modern Yemen. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p63)
Policy
A course or method of action selected to guide and determine present and future decisions.
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