Estimating the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving treatment to their HIV-uninfected partners.
Summary of "Estimating the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving treatment to their HIV-uninfected partners."
Objective To determine how the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving antiretroviral treatment is related to patterns of patient monitoring and condom use. Methods A stochastic mathematical simulation model was developed of cohorts of men in the Netherlands who have sex with men (MSM), defining the parameters of the model using observational cohort data. The model incorporates viral load trends during first-line treatment, patient monitoring and different scenarios for the way in which condom use may depend on recent viral load measurements. The model does not include the effect of sexually transmitted infections on HIV transmission. Results For MSM receiving treatment, the risk of transmitting HIV to their long-term partner is 22% (uncertainty interval: 9-37%) if condoms are never used. With incomplete use (in 30% of sex acts) the risk is reduced slightly, to 17% (7-29%). However, the risk is as low as 3% (0.2-8%) when men receiving treatment use condoms only 6 months beyond their last undetectable viral load measurement. The risk is further reduced when 3 months is the time period beyond which condoms are used. Conclusions When condom use by HIV-infected men receiving combination treatment with antiretroviral agents is based on their last viral load measurement, the transmission risk is much lower than with incomplete condom use. The key message for patients is that although always using condoms during treatment is the best way to protect partners from the risk of HIV transmission, when such use cannot be achieved, the second best strategy is to use condoms whenever the last undetectable viral load was measured more than 3 months ago.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, UK.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Sexually transmitted infections
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20643658
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sti.2010.042622
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Statistical models which describe the relationship between a qualitative dependent variable (that is, one which can take only certain discrete values, such as the presence or absence of a disease) and an independent variable. A common application is in epidemiology for estimating an individual's risk (probability of a disease) as a function of a given risk factor.
The use of severity-of-illness measures, such as age, to estimate the risk (measurable or predictable chance of loss, injury or death) to which a patient is subject before receiving some health care intervention. This adjustment allows comparison of performance and quality across organizations, practitioners, and communities. (from JCAHO, Lexikon, 1994)
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