Prediction of gastrointestinal disease with over-the-counter diarrheal remedy sales records in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Summary of "Prediction of gastrointestinal disease with over-the-counter diarrheal remedy sales records in the San Francisco Bay Area."
Water utilities continue to be interested in implementing syndromic surveillance for the enhanced detection of waterborne disease outbreaks. The authors evaluated the ability of sales of over-the-counter diarrheal remedies available from the National Retail Data Monitor to predict endemic and epidemic gastrointestinal disease in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Time series models were fit to weekly diarrheal remedy sales and diarrheal illness case counts. Cross-correlations between the pre-whitened residual series were calculated. Diarrheal remedy sales model residuals were regressed on the number of weekly outbreaks and outbreak-associated cases. Diarrheal remedy sales models were used to auto-forecast one week-ahead sales. The sensitivity and specificity of signals, generated by observed diarrheal remedy sales exceeding the upper 95% forecast confidence interval, in predicting weekly outbreaks were calculated.
No significant correlations were identified between weekly diarrheal remedy sales and diarrhea illness case counts, outbreak counts, or the number of outbreak-associated cases. Signals generated by forecasting with the diarrheal remedy sales model did not coincide with outbreak weeks more reliably than signals chosen randomly.
This work does not support the implementation of syndromic surveillance for gastrointestinal disease with data available though the National Retail Data Monitor.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: BMC medical informatics and decision making
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20646311
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-10-39
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Medicines that are stocked behind the counter of a pharmacy which require the attention or counsel of a pharmacist before being dispensed or handed over to a consumer or patient.
A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations.
Clinical Enzyme Tests
Analyses for a specific enzyme activity, or of the level of a specific enzyme that is used to assess health and disease risk, for early detection of disease or disease prediction, diagnosis, and change in disease status.
Malignant Carcinoid Syndrome
A symptom complex associated with CARCINOID TUMOR and characterized by attacks of severe flushing of the skin, diarrheal watery stools, bronchoconstriction, sudden drops in blood pressure, edema, and ascites. The carcinoid tumors are usually located in the gastrointestinal tract and metastasize to the liver. Symptoms are caused by tumor secretion of serotonin, prostaglandins, and other biologically active substances. Cardiac manifestations constitute CARCINOID HEART DISEASE. (Dorland, 27th ed; Stedman, 25th ed)
Predicting the time of OVULATION can be achieved by measuring the preovulatory elevation of ESTRADIOL; LUTEINIZING HORMONE or other hormones in BLOOD or URINE. Accuracy of ovulation prediction depends on the completeness of the hormone profiles, and the ability to determine the preovulatory LH peak.
Over the last decade, travel medicine was mainly focused on the epidemiology of diseases among travelers to developing countries. However, less is known about travel-related morbidity in Europe. We ev...
Diarrheal disease is still a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide; thus a large body of research has been produced describing its risks. We review more than four decades of literature on d...
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of this review is to describe recent progress in the understanding of the role of Bacteroides spp. in human diarrheal diseases and newer murine studies implicating certa...
Between February 2011 and February 2012, 985 and 324 samples were collected from diarrheal and healthy pigs, respectively, to detect porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), porcine kobuvirus (PKoV), p...
TO THE EDITOR: Diarrheal diseases have a major effect on global health, particularly the health of malnourished children (1). The enteric parasites Entamoeba histolytica and E. moshkovskii are potenti...
The homeopathic remedy 'naja-comp' will improve functional outcome measured by the Barthel-Index. The homeopathic remedy 'naja-comp' will decrease complications during geriatric reh...
In a homeopathic drug proving a homeopathically prepared substance is administered to healthy volunteers in order to produce the symptoms specific to that substance and thereby reveal its...
This is a long term study on the efficacy of dietary calcium with or without probiotic strains in reducing the mean number of episodes and duration of diarrheal disease.
The study aims to to establish whether or not measurement of respiratory rate taken using the Anaxsys Technology Ltd Respiratory Counter (R8 Counter) are equivalent to manual respiratory r...
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the level of satisfaction experienced by asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients when using the Fluticasone/Salmeterol HFA...