A Bayesian Approach to the Group Versus Individual Prediction Controversy in Actuarial Risk Assessment.
Summary of "A Bayesian Approach to the Group Versus Individual Prediction Controversy in Actuarial Risk Assessment."
Recent attempts to indict the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments have relied on confidence intervals to demonstrate that risk estimates derived at the group level do not necessarily apply to any specific individual within that group. This article contends that frequentist confidence intervals are inapposite to the current debate. Instead, Bayesian credible intervals are necessary-in principle-to accomplish what commentators are concerned about: describing the precision of an actuarial risk estimate. After illustrating both the calculation and interpretation of credible intervals, this article shows how such intervals can be used to characterize the precision of actuarial risk estimates. It then explores the legal implications of wide and overlapping intervals. Contrary to what detractors claim, the fact that risk estimate intervals overlap is not a germane to legal (logical) relevance, and therefore actuarial risk estimates cannot be per se "inadmissible" on this basis.
Affiliation
Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, SGM 501, Los Angeles, CA, 90089, USA, scurich@usc.edu.
Journal Details
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Law and human behavior
ISSN: 1573-661X
Pages:
Links
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21560025
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10979-011-9286-0
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Negotiating
The process of bargaining in order to arrive at an agreement or compromise on a matter of importance to the parties involved. It also applies to the hearing and determination of a case by a third party chosen by the parties in controversy, as well as the interposing of a third party to reconcile the parties in controversy.
Prognosis
A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations.
Social Distance
The degree of closeness or acceptance an individual or group feels toward another individual or group.
Disease Management
A broad approach to appropriate coordination of the entire disease treatment process that often involves shifting away from more expensive inpatient and acute care to areas such as preventive medicine, patient counseling and education, and outpatient care. This concept includes implications of appropriate versus inappropriate therapy on the overall cost and clinical outcome of a particular disease. (From Hosp Pharm 1995 Jul;30(7):596)
Internal-external Control
Personality construct referring to an individual's perception of the locus of events as determined internally by his or her own behavior versus fate, luck, or external forces. (ERIC Thesaurus, 1996).
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