Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system.
Summary of "Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system."
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.
Mathematics Research Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22291228
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306
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