Discounting phase 2 results when planning phase 3 clinical trials.
Summary of "Discounting phase 2 results when planning phase 3 clinical trials."
Sample size planning is an important design consideration for a phase 3 trial. In this paper, we consider how to improve this planning when using data from phase 2 trials. We use an approach based on the concept of assurance. We consider adjusting phase 2 results because of two possible sources of bias. The first source arises from selecting compounds with pre-specified favourable phase 2 results and using these favourable results as the basis of treatment effect for phase 3 sample size planning. The next source arises from projecting phase 2 treatment effect to the phase 3 population when this projection is optimistic because of a generally more heterogeneous patient population at the confirmatory stage. In an attempt to reduce the impact of these two sources of bias, we adjust (discount) the phase 2 estimate of treatment effect. We consider multiplicative and additive adjustment. Following a previously proposed concept, we consider the properties of several criteria, termed launch criteria, for deciding whether or not to progress development to phase 3. We use simulations to investigate launch criteria with or without bias adjustment for the sample size calculation under various scenarios. The simulation results are supplemented with empirical evidence to support the need to discount phase 2 results when the latter are used in phase 3 planning. Finally, we offer some recommendations based on both the simulations and the empirical investigations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Affiliation
Pfizer Limited, Ramsgate Road, Sandwich, UK, CT13 9NJ. simon.kirby@pfizer.com.
Journal Details
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Pharmaceutical statistics
ISSN: 1539-1612
Pages:
Links
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22641524
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pst.1521
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Clinical Trials, Phase Iii As Topic
Comparative studies to verify the effectiveness of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques determined in phase II studies. During these trials, patients are monitored closely by physicians to identify any adverse reactions from long-term use. These studies are performed on groups of patients large enough to identify clinically significant responses and usually last about three years. This concept includes phase III studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries.
Clinical Trial, Phase Iii
Work that is a report of a pre-planned, usually controlled, clinical study of the safety and efficacy of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques after phase II trials. A large enough group of patients is studied and closely monitored by physicians for adverse response to long-term exposure, over a period of about three years in either the United States or a foreign country.
Clinical Trials, Phase Ii As Topic
Studies that are usually controlled to assess the effectiveness and dosage (if appropriate) of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques. These studies are performed on several hundred volunteers, including a limited number of patients with the target disease or disorder, and last about two years. This concept includes phase II studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries.
Interphase
The interval between two successive CELL DIVISIONS during which the CHROMOSOMES are not individually distinguishable. It is composed of the G phases (G1 PHASE; G0 PHASE; G2 PHASE) and S PHASE (when DNA replication occurs).
Clinical Trials, Phase Iv As Topic
Planned post-marketing studies of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques that have been approved for general sale. These studies are often conducted to obtain additional data about the safety and efficacy of a product. This concept includes phase IV studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries.
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