Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched.
Summary of "Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched."
Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change.
Affiliation
Department of Biology, Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution Group, Ecology Bldg, Lund University, SE-22362, Lund, Sweden.
Journal Details
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Ecology letters
ISSN: 1461-0248
Pages:
Links
- PubMed Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22676374
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01812.x
Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions
Game Theory
Theoretical construct used in applied mathematics to analyze certain situations in which there is an interplay between parties that may have similar, opposed, or mixed interests. In a typical game, decision-making "players," who each have their own goals, try to gain advantage over the other parties by anticipating each other's decisions; the game is finally resolved as a consequence of the players' decisions.
Desert Climate
A type of climate characterized by insufficient moisture to support appreciable plant life. It is a climate of extreme aridity, usually of extreme heat, and of negligible rainfall. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed)
Probability Learning
Usually refers to the use of mathematical models in the prediction of learning to perform tasks based on the theory of probability applied to responses; it may also refer to the frequency of occurrence of the responses observed in the particular study.
Climate Change
Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.
Phototropins
Blue-light receptors that regulate a range of physiological responses in PLANTS. Examples include: PHOTOTROPISM, light-induced stomatal opening, and CHLOROPLAST movements in response to changes in light intensity.
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