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The failure rate for phase III trials in oncology is high; quantitative predictive approaches are needed. We developed a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) framework to predict progression-free survival (PFS) from overall response rates (ORR) in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM), using data from seven phase III trials. A Bayesian analysis was used to predict the probability of technical success (PTS) for achieving desired phase III PFS targets based on phase II ORR data. The model demonstrated a strongly correlated (R(2) = 0.84) linear relationship between ORR and median PFS. As a representative application of the framework, MBMA predicted that an ORR of ∼66% would be needed in a phase II study of 50 patients to achieve a target median PFS of 13.5 months in a phase III study. This model can be used to help estimate PTS to achieve gold-standard targets in a target product profile, thereby enabling objectively informed decision-making.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Clinical and translational science
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Works consisting of studies using a quantitative method of combining the results of independent studies (usually drawn from the published literature) and synthesizing summaries and conclusions which may be used to evaluate therapeutic effectiveness, plan new studies, etc. It is often an overview of clinical trials. It is usually called a meta-analysis by the author or sponsoring body and should be differentiated from reviews of literature.
Meta-analysis of randomized trials in which estimates of comparative treatment effects are visualized and interpreted from a network of interventions that may or may not have been evaluated directly against each other. Common considerations in network meta-analysis include conceptual and statistical heterogeneity and incoherence.
An asymptomatic and slow-growing PLASMA CELL dyscrasia characterized by presence of MYELOMA PROTEINS and clonal bone marrow plasma cells without end-organ damage (e.g., renal impairment). It is distinguished from MONOCLONAL GAMMOPATHY OF UNDETERMINED SIGNIFICANCE by a much higher risk of progression to symptomatic MULTIPLE MYELOMA.
A quantitative method of combining the results of independent studies (usually drawn from the published literature) and synthesizing summaries and conclusions which may be used to evaluate therapeutic effectiveness, plan new studies, etc., with application chiefly in the areas of research and medicine.
A rare, aggressive variant of MULTIPLE MYELOMA characterized by the circulation of excessive PLASMA CELLS in the peripheral blood. It can be a primary manifestation of multiple myeloma or develop as a terminal complication during the disease.
Pharmacy is the science and technique of preparing as well as dispensing drugs and medicines. It is a health profession that links health sciences with chemical sciences and aims to ensure the safe and effective use of pharmaceutical drugs. The scope of...
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