How Often Do Safety Signals Occur by Chance in First-in-Human Trials?

08:00 EDT 27th April 2018 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "How Often Do Safety Signals Occur by Chance in First-in-Human Trials?"

Clinicians working on first-in-human clinical studies need to be able to judge whether safety signals observed on an investigational drug were more likely to have occurred by chance or to have been caused by the drug. We retrospectively reviewed 84 Novartis studies including 1,234 healthy volunteers receiving placebo to determine the expected incidence of changes in commonly measured laboratory parameters and vital signs, in the absence of any active agent. We calculated the frequency of random incidence of safety signals, focusing on the liver, cardiovascular system, kidney, and pancreas. Using the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as an example, we illustrate how a predictive model can be used to determine the probability of a given subject to experience an elevation of ALT above the upper limit of the normal range under placebo, conditional on the characteristics of this subject and the study.


Journal Details

This article was published in the following journal.

Name: Clinical and translational science
ISSN: 1752-8062


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Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions

A process involving chance used in therapeutic trials or other research endeavor for allocating experimental subjects, human or animal, between treatment and control groups, or among treatment groups. It may also apply to experiments on inanimate objects.

Pre-planned studies of the safety, efficacy, or optimum dosage schedule (if appropriate) of one or more diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques selected according to predetermined criteria of eligibility and observed for predefined evidence of favorable and unfavorable effects. This concept includes clinical trials conducted both in the U.S. and in other countries.

The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process.

Work that is the report of a pre-planned clinical study of the safety, efficacy, or optimum dosage schedule of one or more diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques in humans selected according to predetermined criteria of eligibility and observed for predefined evidence of favorable and unfavorable effects. While most clinical trials concern humans, this publication type may be used for clinical veterinary articles meeting the requisites for humans. Specific headings for specific types and phases of clinical trials are also available.

Freedom from exposure to danger and protection from the occurrence or risk of injury or loss. It suggests optimal precautions in the workplace, on the street, in the home, etc., and includes personal safety as well as the safety of property.

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