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Many reports present analyses of trends over time based on multiple years of data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) surveys and the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Trend analyses of NCHS data involve analytic choices that can lead to different conclusions about the trends. This report discusses issues that should be considered when conducting a time trend analysis using NCHS data and presents guidelines for making trend analysis choices. Trend analysis issues discussed include: choosing the observed time points to include in the analysis, considerations for survey data and vital records data (record level and aggregated), a general approach for conducting trend analyses, assorted other analytic issues, and joinpoint regression. This report provides 12 guidelines for trend analyses, examples of analyses using NCHS survey and vital records data, statistical details for some analysis issues, and SAS and SUDAAN code for specification of joinpoint regression models. Several an lytic choices must be made during the course of a trend analysis, and the choices made can affect the results. This report highlights the strengths and limitations of different choices and presents guidelines for making some of these choices. While this report focuses on time trend analyses, the issues discussed and guidelines presented are applicable to trend analyses involving other ordinal and interval variables.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Vital and health statistics. Series 2, Data evaluation and methods research
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A center in the PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE which is primarily concerned with the collection, analysis, and dissemination of health statistics on vital events and health activities to reflect the health status of people, health needs, and health resources.
The mission of NCCIH is to define, through rigorous scientific investigation, the usefulness and safety of complementary and integrative health interventions and their roles in improving health and health care. The Center was established in 1999 and was known as NCCAM National Center of Complementary and Alternative Medicine until 2015.
A cancer registry mandated under the National Cancer Act of 1971 to operate and maintain a population-based cancer reporting system, reporting periodically estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in the United States. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program is a continuing project of the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health. Among its goals, in addition to assembling and reporting cancer statistics, are the monitoring of annual cancer incident trends and the promoting of studies designed to identify factors amenable to cancer control interventions. (From National Cancer Institute, NIH Publication No. 91-3074, October 1990)
A unit of the National Institutes of Health that seeks to catalyze the generation of innovative methods and technologies that will enhance the development, testing, and implementation of diagnostics and therapeutics across a wide range of human diseases and conditions. The Center was established in 2011.
A center in the PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE which coordinates and administers a program of research, demonstrations, and evaluations of medical technologies and assessments of health care technology.