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A series of Poisson distributions are fit to sets of global cost-of-impact data representing large-scale accidents and anthropogenic catastrophes. The fits are used to build a function representing data means and are designated the Inverse Poisson Functional. Climate and environmental data have been used to develop a cost-frequency population distribution and to estimate the expected time between events. On a global scale, we show that expected wait- or reaction- times can be estimated using the Poisson density function. The functional is generated, representing the locus of means (peaks) from the individual Poisson distributions from different impact costs. Past (ex-post) forecasts relate to a range of natural and anthropogenic disasters; future (ex-ante) forecast presents global CO emissions. This paper shows that a substantial reaction to global climate change (CO emissions extremum) will occur in 55 to 120 years (95% CI) with a model prediction of 80 years.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Scientific reports
Analysis and forecasting of sequential data, key problems in various domains of engineering and science, have attracted the attention of many researchers from different communities. When predicting th...
Histamine [2-(4-Imidazolyl)-ethylamine] modulates different biological processes, through histamine H and H receptors, and their respective blockers are widely used in treating allergic and gastric ac...
This paper takes a novel approach for forecasting the risk of disease emergence by combining risk management, signal processing and econometrics to develop a new forecasting approach. We propose quant...
People try to make decisions that will improve their lives and make them happy, and to do so, they rely on affective forecasts-predictions about how future outcomes will make them feel. Decades of res...
Forecasting pesticide residues in soils in real time is essential for agronomic purposes, to manage phytotoxic effects, and in catchments to manage surface and ground water quality. This has not been ...
The purpose of the study is to assess the reconstruction and inverse reconstruction in right atrium by speckle tracking echocardiography combined with real-time three dimensional echocardi...
People with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) often have periods during the year when their symptoms become worse. These are often due to an infection and are called "exacerba...
The specific aims of the study are to: 1) test the effectiveness of a home-bases intervention to improve home safety, fall efficacy and functional performance; 2) determine if the use of e...
This is a phase 2a trial testing twice daily administration of LEO 124249 ointment 30 mg/g in the treatment of mild to moderate inverse psoriasis. Patients will be treated for 6 weeks, and...
In this study we will interrogate an existing data set to examine whether genetic variants contribute to an inverse association between weight status and cognitive function. We hypothesize...
A distribution function used to describe the occurrence of rare events or to describe the sampling distribution of isolated counts in a continuum of time or space.
Ecosystem and environmental activities, functions, or events.
Determination of the shortest time interval between the injection of a substance in the vein and its arrival at some distant site in sufficient concentration to produce a recognizable end result. It represents approximately the inverse of the average velocity of blood flow between two points.
The time from the onset of a stimulus until a response is observed.
Phenomena and pharmaceutics of compounds that inhibit the function of agonists (DRUG AGONISM) and inverse agonists (DRUG INVERSE AGONISM) for a specific receptor. On their own, antagonists produce no effect by themselves to a receptor, and are said to have neither intrinsic activity nor efficacy.