Advertisement

Topics

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

07:00 EST 13th January 2019 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease."

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modelling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed Approximate Bayesian Computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from ten years of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 years following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 years, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modelling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Affiliation

Journal Details

This article was published in the following journal.

Name: Ecology
ISSN: 0012-9658
Pages: e02613

Links

DeepDyve research library

PubMed Articles [23121 Associated PubMed Articles listed on BioPortfolio]

Cumulative reproductive costs on current reproduction in a wild polytocous mammal.

The cumulative cost of reproduction hypothesis predicts that reproductive costs accumulate over an individual's reproductive life span. While short-term costs have been extensively explored, the preva...

Pretreatment Hepatitis B Viral Load Predicts Long-term Hepatitis B Response after Anti-hepatitis C Therapy in Hepatitis B/C Dual-infected Patients.

We aimed to investigate the long-term outcomes in hepatitis B (HBV)/hepatitis C (HCV) dual-infected patients after anti-HCV therapy.

Individuals' expected genetic contributions to future generations, reproductive value, and short-term metrics of fitness in free-living song sparrows ().

Appropriately defining and enumerating "fitness" is fundamental to explaining and predicting evolutionary dynamics. Yet, general theoretical concepts of fitness are often hard to translate into quanti...

On the importance of time scales when studying adaptive evolution.

Long-term field studies coupled with quantitative genomics offer a powerful means to understand the genetic bases underlying quantitative traits and their evolutionary changes. However, analyzing and ...

Interactions of long-term food ration variation and short-term fasting on insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) pathways in copper rockfish (Sebastes caurinus).

Variation in food intake affects somatic growth by altering the expression of hormones in the somatotropic endocrine axis including insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). Here, we examined IGF-1 pathwa...

Clinical Trials [11902 Associated Clinical Trials listed on BioPortfolio]

The Effect of Temporal Muscle Suspension of Temporal Hollowing

The primary objective is to identify which patients undergoing a traditional pterional approach with 2 different surgical techniques for TMS (Temporal Muscle Suspension) will develop TH (T...

Does the Deep Layer of the Deep Temporalis Fascia Really Exist?

It has been widely accepted that a split of the deep temporal fascia occurs approximately 2 to 3 cm above the zygomatic arch, named the superficial and deep layers. The deep layer of the d...

Single Neurons Responses During Visual Recognition in Epileptic Patients

The purpose is to evaluate specific capacities of face detection of individual neurons by comparison with their capacity of object detection in medial temporal lobe and ventral temporal co...

Fluid Responsiveness Evaluation by AbdomiNal Compression in Kids Based on the STARLING Concept

Purpose: Fluid responsiveness in a context of circulatory failure can be predicted by different way. Dynamic criteria such as pulse pressure variation, stroke volume variation during an ...

Neuromuscular Intervention Targeted to Mechanisms of ACL Load in Female Athletes

Females who participate in cutting and landing sports suffer anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries at a 2 to 10-fold greater rate than males participating in the same high-risk sports....

Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions

The continuous, long-term suppression of VIRAL LOAD, generally to undetectable levels, as the result of treatment with ANTIVIRAL AGENTS.

Health insurance to provide full or partial coverage for long-term home care services or for long-term nursing care provided in a residential facility such as a nursing home.

Differences in measurable biological values, characteristics, or traits, within one individual under different conditions for the individual such as fasting, season of the year, age, or state of wellness.

Persons who have experienced prolonged survival of HIV infection. This includes the full spectrum of untreated, HIV-infected long-term asymptomatics to those with AIDS who have survived due to successful treatment.

A persistent increase in synaptic efficacy, usually induced by appropriate activation of the same synapses. The phenomenological properties of long-term potentiation suggest that it may be a cellular mechanism of learning and memory.

Advertisement
Quick Search
Advertisement
Advertisement

 


DeepDyve research library

Relevant Topics

Infectious-diseases
Antiretroviral Therapy Clostridium Difficile Ebola HIV & AIDS Infectious Diseases Influenza Malaria Measles Sepsis Swine Flu Tropical Medicine Tuberculosis Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic...

Public Health
Alternative Medicine Cleft Palate Complementary & Alternative Medicine Congenital Diseases Dentistry Ear Nose & Throat Food Safety Geriatrics Healthcare Hearing Medical Devices MRSA Muscular Dyst...

Cancer Disease
Cancer is not just one disease but many diseases. There are more than 100 different types of cancer. Most cancers are named for the organ or type of cell in which they start - for example, cancer that begins in the colon is called colon cancer; cancer th...


Searches Linking to this Article