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Mathematical modelers have attempted to capture the dynamics of Ebola transmission and to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures, as well as to make predictions about ongoing outbreaks. Many of their models consider only infections with typical symptoms, but Ebola presents clinically in a more complicated way. Even the most common symptom, fever, is not experienced by 13% of patients. This suggests that infected individuals could be asymptomatic or have moderately symptomatic infections as reported during previous Ebola outbreaks. To account crudely for the spectrum of clinical symptoms that characterizes Ebola infection, we developed a model including moderate and severe symptoms. Our model captures the dynamics of the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia. Our estimate of the basic reproduction number is 1.83 (
1.72, 1.86), consistent with the WHO response team's estimate using early outbreak case data. We also estimate the effectiveness of interventions using observations before and after their introduction. As the final epidemic size is linked to the timing of interventions in an exponential fashion, a simple empirical formula is provided to guide policy-making. It suggests that early implementation could significantly decrease final size. We also compare our model to one with typical symptoms by excluding moderate ones. The model with only typical symptoms overestimates the basic reproduction number and effectiveness of control measures, and exaggerates changes in peak size attributable to the timing of interventions. In addition, uncertainty about how moderate symptoms affect the basic reproduction number is considered, and PRCC (Partial rank correlation coefficient) is used to analyze the global sensitivity of relevant parameters. Possible control strategies are evaluated through numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis, indicating that simultaneously strengthening contact-tracing and effectiveness of isolation in hospital would be most effective. In this study, we show that asymptomatic Ebola infections may have implications for policy-making.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: Journal of theoretical biology
According to the characteristics of gout's clinical symptoms, the common gout animal models were analyzed, and the anastomosis and application prospect of the existing gout animal models with the clin...
The potential of system dynamics modeling to advance our understanding of cumulative risk in the service of optimal health is discussed. The focus is on exploring system dynamics modeling as a systems...
Depression and anxiety are common in multiple sclerosis (MS) and recently, studies on these symptoms in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) are increasing. Previous studies suggest that the...
Parents of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) reported higher stress than those of typically developing children. The role of child problem behaviors in the relationship between autism spec...
Matching the model with the evidence: comparing discrete event simulation and state-transition modeling for time-to-event predictions in a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer patients.
Individual patient data, e.g. from clinical trials, often need to be extrapolated or combined with additional evidence when assessing long-term impact in cost-effectiveness modeling studies. Different...
The primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the efficacy of Floreo's police safety module (PSM) in adolescents and adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) by assessing improve...
This study evaluates SPECT image data acquired from Spectrum Dynamics' multi-purpose CZT SPECT camera. All subjects will undergo routine clinical Anger SPECT imaging and an additional SPEC...
The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of a 6-months supplementation with probiotic VSL#3 on inflammatory and gastrointestinal (GI) biomarkers, gastro-intestinal disturbances, ...
The aim of this randomized controlled trial is to determine if a nutritional supplement containing broccoli sprout and seed extracts, a rich source of sulforaphane, is effective in reducin...
The purpose of the current study is to determine if pre-exposure through video modeling will enhance testing compliance in a population of children who are receiving a diagnostic evaluatio...
Classification system for assessing impact injury severity developed and published by the American Association for Automotive Medicine. It is the system of choice for coding single injuries and is the foundation for methods assessing multiple injuries or for assessing cumulative effects of more than one injury. These include Maximum AIS (MAIS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), and Probability of Death Score (PODS).
Disorders having the presence of physical symptoms that suggest a general medical condition but that are not fully explained by a general medical condition, by the direct effects of a substance, or by another mental disorder. The symptoms must cause clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational, or other areas of functioning. In contrast to FACTITIOUS DISORDERS and MALINGERING, the physical symptoms are not under voluntary control. (APA, DSM-IV)
Agents that control agitated psychotic behavior, alleviate acute psychotic states, reduce psychotic symptoms, and exert a quieting effect. They are used in schizophrenia, senile dementia, transient psychosis following surgery or myocardial infarction, etc. These drugs are often referred to as neuroleptics alluding to the tendency to produce neurological side effects, but not all antipsychotics are likely to produce such effects. Many of these drugs may also be effective against nausea, emesis, and pruritus.
A phenothiazine antipsychotic used in the management of psychoses, including schizophrenia, and in the control of severely disturbed or agitated behavior. It has little antiemetic activity. Thioridazine has a higher incidence of antimuscarinic effects, but a lower incidence of extrapyramidal symptoms, than CHLORPROMAZINE. (From Martindale, The Extra Pharmacopoeia, 30th ed, p618)
Work that is the report of a pre-planned clinical study of the safety, efficacy, or optimum dosage schedule of one or more diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques in humans selected according to predetermined criteria of eligibility and observed for predefined evidence of favorable and unfavorable effects. While most clinical trials concern humans, this publication type may be used for clinical veterinary articles meeting the requisites for humans. Specific headings for specific types and phases of clinical trials are also available.
Tropical Medicine is the study of diseases more commonly found in tropical regions than elsewhere. Examples of these diseases are malaria, yellow fever, Chagas disease, Dengue, Helminths, African trypanosomiasis, Leishmaniasis, Leprosy, Lymphatic filaria...
Marburg and Ebola Virus Infections
Ebola virus and Marburg virus are related viruses that cause hemorrhagic fevers — illnesses marked by severe bleeding (hemorrhage), organ failure and, in many cases, death. Both viruses are native to Africa, where sporadic outbreaks have occurred f...
Antiretroviral Therapy Clostridium Difficile Ebola HIV & AIDS Infectious Diseases Influenza Malaria Measles Sepsis Swine Flu Tropical Medicine Tuberculosis Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic...