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Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic.

08:00 EDT 27th March 2019 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic."

The criteria of zero Ebola cases defined by the World Health Organization did not explicitly account for the sexual transmission and led to multiple recrudescent events in West Africa from 2015-2016, partly indeed caused by sexual transmission from survivors. We devised a statistical model to compute the probability of the end of an Ebola virus disease epidemic, accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment of cases. Analyzing the empirical data in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the performance of the proposed model was compared with the existing criteria comprising a fixed waiting time of 42 days since the last case testing negative or burial. We showed that the waiting time can vary depending on the sexual behaviors of survivors and their adherence to refraining from unprotected sex is likely one of the key factors in determining the absence of additional cases after declaration. If the proportional weight of sexual transmission among all secondary transmission events was substantial, ascertaining the end could even require waiting 1 year from the purported last case. While our proposed method offers an objectively interpretable probability of the end of an epidemic, it highlights that the computation requires a good knowledge of sexual contact.

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This article was published in the following journal.

Name: Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
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Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions

A genus of FLAVIVIRIDAE, also known as mucosal disease virus group, which is not arthropod-borne. Transmission is by direct and indirect contact, and by transplacental and congenital transmission. Species include BORDER DISEASE VIRUS, bovine viral diarrhea virus (DIARRHEA VIRUS, BOVINE VIRAL), and CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER VIRUS.

An Ig domain-containing membrane receptor for HEPATITIS A VIRUS; EBOLA VIRUS; MARBURG VIRUS; and DENGUE VIRUS. It may also function to modulate ASTHMA and HYPERSENSITIVITY.

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The expelling of virus particles from the body. Important routes include the respiratory tract, genital tract, and intestinal tract. Virus shedding is an important means of vertical transmission (INFECTIOUS DISEASE TRANSMISSION, VERTICAL).

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