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We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted probabilistic projections. We validate the method using a suite of one-at-a-time cross-validation experiments involving Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), its temperature-based index, as well as Korean summer mean maximum temperature. In these experiments the method tends to exhibit superior skill over a trend-only Bayesian model averaging weighting method in terms of weight assignment and probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, mean credible interval width, and mean absolute error of the projections tend to improve. We apply the method to a problem of projecting summer mean maximum temperature change over Korea by the end of the 21st century using a multi-model ensemble. Compared to the trend-only method, the new method appreciably sharpens the probability distribution function (pdf) and increases future most likely, median, and mean warming in Korea. The method is flexible, with a potential to improve forecasts in geosciences and other fields.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PloS one
There has been increasing interest in understanding real-world outcomes for individuals with serious mental illnesses (SMI). This study examined domain-specific skill knowledge, functional capacity, a...
The aim of this experiment was to assess if the previously supported relationship between the structure of motor variability and performance changes when the task or organismic constraints encourage i...
Quantifying changes in functional diversity, the facet of biodiversity accounting for the biological features of organisms, has been advocated as one of the most integrative ways to unravel how commun...
To determine the magnitude of exercise-induced individual variability for waist circumference (WC) and body weight change after accounting for biological variability and measurement error. Determinant...
Profiling the transcriptomes of individual cells with single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has been widely applied to provide a detailed molecular characterization of cellular heterogeneity within a...
The study is designed to assess the effects of cardiovascular (aerobic) exercise on motor skill learning in Parkinson patients. Specifically, the investigators examine whether a single bou...
The study is designed to assess the effects of aerobic exercise on motor learning in Parkinson patients. Specifically, the investigators examine whether a single bout of moderate intensity...
The purpose of this study was to clarify the effects on health-related QOL of occupational therapy involving the adjustment of challenge-skill balance in the activity of elderly clients.
Some of the most common, persistent, and disabling consequences of traumatic brain injury affect an individual's ability to achieve personal goals. Interventions that strengthen abilities ...
There are very few studies on emotion management in chronically ill patients. They usually include small sample size (less than 30 persons) and are not randomized controlled trials. Howeve...
System of recording financial transactions.
A study that uses observations at multiple time points before and after an intervention (the "interruption"), in an attempt to detect whether the intervention has had an effect significantly greater than any underlying trend over time.
Methods used to take into account and incorporate spatial autocorrelation and regional variation into regression analysis models of data that has spatial dependency, and also to provide information on the spatial relationships among the variables.
A branch of genetics which deals with the genetic variability in individual responses to drugs and drug metabolism (BIOTRANSFORMATION).
A broad category of multi-ingredient preparations that are marketed for the relief of upper respiratory symptoms resulting from the COMMON COLD; ALLERGIES; or HUMAN INFLUENZA. While the majority of these medications are available as OVER-THE-COUNTER DRUGS some of them contain ingredients that require them to be sold as PRESCRIPTION DRUGS or as BEHIND-THE COUNTER DRUGS.