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Infectivity enhances prediction of viral cascades in Twitter.

08:00 EDT 17th April 2019 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "Infectivity enhances prediction of viral cascades in Twitter."

Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we demonstrate that these estimated infectivities can be used to improve predictions about the virality of an information cascade. Developing our simulations to mimic the real-world data, we consider the effect of the limited effective time for transmission of a cascade and demonstrate that a simple model of slow but non-negligible decay of the infectivity captures the essential properties of retweet distributions. These results demonstrate the interplay between the intrinsic infectivity of a tweet and the complex network environment within which it diffuses, strongly influencing the likelihood of becoming a viral cascade.

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This article was published in the following journal.

Name: PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Pages: e0214453

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Method for measuring viral infectivity and multiplication in CULTURED CELLS. Clear lysed areas or plaques develop as the VIRAL PARTICLES are released from the infected cells during incubation. With some VIRUSES, the cells are killed by a cytopathic effect; with others, the infected cells are not killed but can be detected by their hemadsorptive ability. Sometimes the plaque cells contain VIRAL ANTIGENS which can be measured by IMMUNOFLUORESCENCE.

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