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Infections can spread among livestock notably because infected animals can be brought to uncontaminated holdings, therefore exposing a new group of susceptible animals to the disease. As a consequence, the structure and dynamics of animal trade networks is a major focus of interest to control zoonosis. We investigate the impact of the chronology of animal trades on the dynamics of the process. Precisely, in the context of a basic SI model spreading, we measure on the French database of bovine transfers to what extent a snapshot-based analysis of the cattle trade networks overestimates the epidemic risks. We bring into light that an analysis taking into account the chronology of interactions would give a much more accurate assessment of both the size and speed of the process. For this purpose, we model data as a temporal network that we analyze using the link stream formalism in order to mix structural and temporal aspects. We also show that in this dataset, a basic SI spreading comes down in most cases to a simple two-phases scenario: a waiting period, with few contacts and low activity, followed by a linear growth of the number of infected holdings. Using this portrait of the spreading process, we identify efficient strategies to control a potential outbreak, based on the identification of specific elements of the link stream which have a higher probability to be involved in a spreading process.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PloS one
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The status or condition of a person over whom any or all of the powers attaching to the right of ownership are exercised. The slave trade is all acts involved in the capture, acquisition or disposal of persons with intent to reduce them to enslavement; all acts involved in the acquisition of enslaved persons with a view to selling or exchanging them; all acts of disposal by sale or exchange of persons acquired with a view to being sold or exchanged, and, in general, every act of trade or transport of slaves. ( from http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Publications/slaveryen.pdf accessed 10/18/2012)