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During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town. The epidemiological and geographical data of two species, chickens and ducks, from the farms in the sixteen towns in Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun are used to find the best-fitted parameters of the metapopulation model. The best culling radius to maximize the final size of the susceptible farms and minimize the total number of culled farms is calculated from the model. The local reproductive number using the next generation method is calculated as an indicator of virus transmission in a given area. Simulation results indicate that this parameter is strongly influenced not only by epidemiological factors such as transmissibility and/or susceptibility of poultry species but also by geographical and demographical factors such as the distribution of poultry farms (or density) and connectivity (or distance) between farms. Based on this result, we suggest the best culling radius with respect to the local reproductive number in a targeted area.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PloS one
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Aims 1. To determine whether the 4 Mountains test of allocentric (i.e. viewpoint-independent) spatial memory, and tests of memory for a recent experience (e.g. watching a brief ...
Methods used to take into account and incorporate spatial autocorrelation and regional variation into regression analysis models of data that has spatial dependency, and also to provide information on the spatial relationships among the variables.
Measures of spatial cognition and memory.
Work consisting of a clinical trial involving one or more test treatments, at least one control treatment, specified outcome measures for evaluating the studied intervention, and a bias-free method for assigning patients to the test treatment. The treatment may be drugs, devices, or procedures studied for diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic effectiveness. Control measures include placebos, active medicine, no-treatment, dosage forms and regimens, historical comparisons, etc. When randomization using mathematical techniques, such as the use of a random numbers table, is employed to assign patients to test or control treatments, the trial is characterized as a RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL.
Clinical trials involving one or more test treatments, at least one control treatment, specified outcome measures for evaluating the studied intervention, and a bias-free method for assigning patients to the test treatment. The treatment may be drugs, devices, or procedures studied for diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic effectiveness. Control measures include placebos, active medicines, no-treatment, dosage forms and regimens, historical comparisons, etc. When randomization using mathematical techniques, such as the use of a random numbers table, is employed to assign patients to test or control treatments, the trials are characterized as RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS AS TOPIC.
Chemical, biological, or medical measures designed to prevent the spread of ticks or the concomitant infestations which result in tick-borne diseases. It includes the veterinary as well as the public health aspects of tick and mite control.
Influenza or 'flu' is a respiratory illness associated with infection by influenza virus. Symptoms frequently include headache, fever, cough, sore throat, aching muscles and joints. There is a wide spectrum of severity of illness ranging from min...