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The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts' opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PloS one
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In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)
Forms of energy that are constantly and rapidly renewed by natural processes such as solar, ocean wave, and wind energy. (from McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)
Approximate, quantitative reasoning that is concerned with the linguistic ambiguity which exists in natural or synthetic language. At its core are variables such as good, bad, and young as well as modifiers such as more, less, and very. These ordinary terms represent fuzzy sets in a particular problem. Fuzzy logic plays a key role in many medical expert systems.
A technique for analysis of the chemical composition of molecules. A substance is bombarded with monochromatic ELECTRONS. Some of the electrons passing through the specimen will lose energy when they ionize inner shell electrons of the atoms in the specimen. The energy loss is element dependent. Analysis of the energy loss spectrum reveals the elemental composition of a specimen. ENERGY-FILTERED TRANSMISSION ELECTRON MICROSCOPY is a type of electron energy loss spectroscopy carried out in electron microscopes specially outfitted to analyze the spectrum of electron energy loss.
An analytical transmission electron microscopy method using an electron microscope fitted with an energy filtering lens. The method is based on the principle that some of the ELECTRONS passing through the specimen will lose energy when they ionize inner shell electrons of the atoms in the specimen. The amount of energy loss is dependent upon the element. Analysis of the energy loss spectrum (ELECTRON ENERGY-LOSS SPECTROSCOPY) reveals the elemental composition of a specimen. It is used analytically and quantitatively to determine which, how much of, and where specific ELEMENTS are in a sample. For example, it is used for elemental mapping of PHOSPHORUS to trace the strands of NUCLEIC ACIDS in nucleoprotein complexes.