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AbstractSeveral statistical issues associated with health care costs, such as heteroscedasticity and severe skewness, make it challenging to estimate or predict medical costs. When the interest is modeling the mean cost, it is desirable to make no assumption on the density function or higher order moments. Another challenge in developing cost prediction models is the presence of many covariates, making it necessary to apply variable selection methods to achieve a balance of prediction accuracy and model simplicity. We propose Spike-or-Slab priors for Bayesian variable selection based on asymptotic normal estimates of the full model parameters that are consistent as long as the assumption on the mean cost is satisfied. In addition, the scope of model searching can be reduced by ranking the Z-statistics. This method possesses four advantages simultaneously: robust (due to avoiding assumptions on the density function or higher order moments), parsimonious (feature of variable selection), informative (due to its Bayesian flavor, which can compare posterior probabilities of candidate models) and efficient (by reducing model searching scope with the use of Z-ranking). We apply this method to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey dataset.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: The international journal of biostatistics
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Absolute, comparative, or differential costs pertaining to services, institutions, resources, etc., or the analysis and study of these costs.
The expenses incurred by a hospital in providing care. The hospital costs attributed to a particular patient care episode include the direct costs plus an appropriate proportion of the overhead for administration, personnel, building maintenance, equipment, etc. Hospital costs are one of the factors which determine HOSPITAL CHARGES (the price the hospital sets for its services).
A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihoods of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.
The actual costs of providing services related to the delivery of health care, including the costs of procedures, therapies, and medications. It is differentiated from HEALTH EXPENDITURES, which refers to the amount of money paid for the services, and from fees, which refers to the amount charged, regardless of cost.