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This paper presents two approaches to smoothing time trends in prevalence and estimating the underlying incidence of remissible infections. In the first approach, we use second order segmented polynomials to smooth a curve in a bounded domain. In the second, incidence is modeled instead and the prevalence is reconstructed using the recovery rate which is assumed to be known. In both approaches, the number of knots and their positions are estimated, resulting in non-linear regressions. Akaike Information Criterion is used for model selection. The method is illustrated with Syphilis and Gonorrhea prevalence smoothing and incidence trend estimation in Guinea-Bissau and South Africa, respectively.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: The international journal of biostatistics
The release of the first drug for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in 2012 marked the beginning of a new era of HIV prevention. Although PrEP is highly efficacious, identifying and ultimately incre...
Gonorrhea (GC) infection caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae has been steadily increasing in Thailand over the last decade. Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for gonorrhea infection.
Men who have sex with men (MSM) have a disproportionate risk of acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis. However, prevalence and determinants of syphilis among this populati...
This report summarizes incidence rates of the 5 most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among active component service members of the U.S. Armed Forces during 2010-2018. Infections with chl...
Syphilis is an infectious disease caused by the spirochaete Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum which is transmitted by sexual contact or vertical transmission during pregnancy. The incidence of syphil...
Syphilis remains a significant health problem worldwide, with an estimated 10.6 million new cases per year. Due to shared transmission route and risk factors, co-infection with syphilis an...
This study aims to enhance syphilis testing among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM), so that more men will undergo testing, they will test more often, and more cases will be tre...
To perform a laboratory sensitivity testing survey of antibiotic agents against Neisseria gonorrhea isolates from men with symptomatic urethritis seen at an STD clinic.
The objective of this study is to determine whether the "Syphilis and Men" educational video can be a useful tool to increase syphilis knowledge and testing among English and Spanish-speak...
The performance of an investigational immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test for the diagnosis of syphilis is compared with the Abbott Laboratories Determine ICS test. The study populatio...
The total number of cases of a given disease in a specified population at a designated time. It is differentiated from INCIDENCE, which refers to the number of new cases in the population at a given time.
Syphilis acquired in utero and manifested by any of several characteristic tooth (Hutchinson's teeth) or bone malformations and by active mucocutaneous syphilis at birth or shortly thereafter. Ocular and neurologic changes may also occur.
Cardiovascular manifestations of SYPHILIS, an infection of TREPONEMA PALLIDUM. In the late stage of syphilis, sometimes 20-30 years after the initial infection, damages are often seen in the blood vessels including the AORTA and the AORTIC VALVE. Clinical signs include syphilitic aortitis, aortic insufficiency, or aortic ANEURYSM.
Serologic tests for syphilis.
The stage of syphilis that occurs following the primary (CHANCRE) and secondary stages. The patient is asymptomatic at the latent stage but remains seropositive for the SPIROCHETE.
The World Health Organization (WHO) definition of sexual health; "the state of physical, emotional, mental and social well-being related to sexuality; it is not merely the absence of disease, dysfunction and infirmity. Sexual health requires a posit...