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Climate change is now considered a significant threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are among the modern tools currently used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species. Pipiza Fallén, 1810 is a well known aphidophagous hoverfly genus (Diptera, Syrphidae) at the European level, for which sampling has been conducted across the region, and long-term databases and geo-referenced datasets have been established. Therefore, in this work, we investigated the potential current distributions of the European species of this genus and their response to future climate change scenarios, as well as evaluated stability in their ranges and potential changes in species-richness patterns. We applied three climate models (BCC_CSM1.1, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES) to four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) for two time frames (2050 and 2070). Our results show that the distribution of most Pipiza species may slightly differ under different climate models. Most Pipiza species were predicted not to be greatly affected by climate change, maintaining their current extent. Percentages of stable areas will remain high (above 50%) for the majority of studied species. According to the predicted turnover of species, northern Europe, could become the richest in terms of species diversity, thus replacing Central Europe as the current hot spot.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PloS one
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An order of the class Insecta. Wings, when present, number two and distinguish Diptera from other so-called flies, while the halteres, or reduced hindwings, separate Diptera from other insects with one pair of wings. The order includes the families Calliphoridae, Oestridae, Phoridae, Sarcophagidae, Scatophagidae, Sciaridae, SIMULIIDAE, Tabanidae, Therevidae, Trypetidae, CERATOPOGONIDAE; CHIRONOMIDAE; CULICIDAE; DROSOPHILIDAE; GLOSSINIDAE; MUSCIDAE; TEPHRITIDAE; and PSYCHODIDAE. The larval form of Diptera species are called maggots (see LARVA).
The probability distribution associated with two mutually exclusive outcomes; used to model cumulative incidence rates and prevalence rates. The Bernoulli distribution is a special case of binomial distribution.
A POSTURE in which an ideal body mass distribution is achieved. Postural balance provides the body carriage stability and conditions for normal functions in stationary position or in movement, such as sitting, standing, or walking.
A distribution function used to describe the occurrence of rare events or to describe the sampling distribution of isolated counts in a continuum of time or space.
A distribution in which a variable is distributed like the sum of the squares of any given independent random variable, each of which has a normal distribution with mean of zero and variance of one. The chi-square test is a statistical test based on comparison of a test statistic to a chi-square distribution. The oldest of these tests are used to detect whether two or more population distributions differ from one another.