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A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a paradigm for consumer-resource dynamics due to the oscillatory nature of the host-pathogen life cycle, the abundance of rich data to test theory, and public health relevance. The dynamics of measles in London, in particular, has acted as a prototypical test bed for such analysis using incidence data from the pre-vaccination era (1944-1967). However, during this timeframe there were few external large-scale perturbations, limiting an assessment of the relative impact of internal and extra demographic perturbations to the host population. Here, we extended the previous London analyses to include nearly a century of data that also contains four major demographic changes: the First and Second World Wars, the 1918 influenza pandemic, and the start of a measles mass vaccination program. By combining mortality and incidence data using particle filtering methods, we show that a simple stochastic epidemic model, with minimal historical specifications, can capture the nearly 100 years of dynamics including changes caused by each of the major perturbations. We show that the majority of dynamic changes are explainable by the internal nonlinear dynamics of the system, tuned by demographic changes. In addition, the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War II acted as extra perturbations to this basic epidemic oscillator. Our analysis underlines that long-term ecological and epidemiological dynamics can follow very simple rules, even in a non-stationary population subject to significant perturbations and major secular changes.
This article was published in the following journal.
Name: PLoS computational biology
The long-term renal outcomes of patients who underwent nephrectomy for traumatic renal injury (TRI) have rarely been reported. Therefore, we investigated the impact of nephrectomy for TRI on long-term...
Attention is focused on graft function although extrahepatic organ dysfunction often occurs. Renal failure, cardiovascular events and sepsis have individually shown a significant impact on short- and ...
This study investigates the impact of obesity, long-term health problems and their interaction on three specific aspects of job satisfaction among Australian adult workers. Exploiting longitudinal dat...
Measles is one of the most serious preventable infectious diseases, which in our country were among the rare diseases in the last 10 to 20 years. One of the reasons for this is that the Hungarian popu...
Although the incidence of measles has been dramatically reduced by the highly effective measles vaccine, cases of measles and outbreaks continue to occur in vaccinated population because of immunizati...
Objective It is the objective to test whether the use of prophylactic antibiotics in measles infection will reduce the incidence of post-measles pneumonia and/or admissions to hospital wit...
The previously conducted JEV01 study looked at the immunogenicity and safety of the concurrent administration of Japanese Live Attenuated SA 14-14-2 and measles vaccines at the one month p...
The aim of this study is to assess whether an auto-titrating oxygen system can maintain constant oxygen saturations (SpO2) in patients who are on long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) during act...
OBJECTIVES - General: To investigate the immunological background for the non-specific effects of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) and measles vaccines on child mortality ...
The general objectives of the proposed research work are: A1) to reduce childhood mortality in developing countries through better control of measles infection by finding the best immuniz...
A live attenuated virus vaccine of chick embryo origin, used for routine immunization of children and for immunization of adolescents and adults who have not had measles or been immunized with live measles vaccine and have no serum antibodies against measles. Children are usually immunized with measles-mumps-rubella combination vaccine. (From Dorland, 28th ed)
Health insurance to provide full or partial coverage for long-term home care services or for long-term nursing care provided in a residential facility such as a nursing home.
Persons who have experienced prolonged survival of HIV infection. This includes the full spectrum of untreated, HIV-infected long-term asymptomatics to those with AIDS who have survived due to successful treatment.
A persistent increase in synaptic efficacy, usually induced by appropriate activation of the same synapses. The phenomenological properties of long-term potentiation suggest that it may be a cellular mechanism of learning and memory.
The type species of MORBILLIVIRUS and the cause of the highly infectious human disease MEASLES, which affects mostly children.
Measles (morbilli, rubeola) is a highly infectious viral illness that can be very unpleasant and can sometimes lead to serious complications. The initial symptoms of measles develop around 10 days after initial infection: a high temperature (...
Alternative Medicine Cleft Palate Complementary & Alternative Medicine Congenital Diseases Dentistry Ear Nose & Throat Food Safety Geriatrics Healthcare Hearing Medical Devices MRSA Muscular Dyst...
Antiretroviral Therapy Clostridium Difficile Ebola HIV & AIDS Infectious Diseases Influenza Malaria Measles Sepsis Swine Flu Tropical Medicine Tuberculosis Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic...