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Reconstructing the population dynamics of foreign residents in Japan to estimate the prevalence of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

07:00 EST 11th January 2020 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "Reconstructing the population dynamics of foreign residents in Japan to estimate the prevalence of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis."

Among newly notified tuberculosis cases in Japan, both the number and the proportion of foreign-born cases have steadily increased over time. As Japan prepares to introduce pre-entry tuberculosis screening for foreign-born persons entering Japan, various epidemiological evidence is needed to evaluate its effectiveness, including the prevalence of tuberculosis among current foreign residents in Japan, by country of birth. Yet as of today, even the underlying population dynamics has yet to be quantified. The present study therefore aimed to firstly reconstruct the demographic prevalence of foreign residents by the length of stay in Japan and by country of birth, and secondly, to estimate the prevalence of infection from notification data among foreign residents in Japan. We employed the McKendrick partial differential equation model to reconstruct the dynamics among six Asian countries which account for 80% of foreign-born tuberculosis patients notified in Japan i.e. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Compared with China and the Philippines, the recent remarkable increase in the number of residents who had arrived within 5 years from Myanmar and Vietnam was identified. Assuming that the risk of primary tuberculosis given infection is 5%, the estimated prevalence of infection ranged from 3.5% to 21.3%, and all the estimates were more than three times greater than the crude estimate that ignored the time since immigration. The proposed method may be used to further estimate the prevalence by age, sex and residential status, which could potentially provide critical evidence towards establishing policies to control tuberculosis among foreign-born persons in Japan, and also possibly among migrants globally.

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This article was published in the following journal.

Name: Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Pages: 110160

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Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions

The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases, new or old, in the population at a given time.

The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population.

Morphological or behavioral traits influenced by various living conditions that a population encounters especially as it pertains to REPRODUCTION and survival of the population (see POPULATION DYNAMICS) such as age at first reproductive event, number and size of offspring, and lifespan.

Monitoring of rate of occurrence of specific conditions to assess the stability or change in health levels of a population. It is also the study of disease rates in a specific cohort, geographic area, population subgroup, etc. to estimate trends in larger population. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed)

The constant presence of diseases or infectious agents within a given geographic area or population group. It may also refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease with such area or group. It includes holoendemic and hyperendemic diseases. A holoendemic disease is one for which a high prevalent level of infection begins early in life and affects most of the child population, leading to a state of equilibrium such that the adult population shows evidence of the disease much less commonly than do children (malaria in many communities is a holoendemic disease). A hyperendemic disease is one that is constantly present at a high incidence and/or prevalence rate and affects all groups equally. (Last, A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 3d ed, p53, 78, 80)

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