Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania.

08:00 EDT 10th March 2020 | BioPortfolio

Summary of "Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania."

The Ngorongoro Crater is an intact caldera with an area of approximately 310 km2 located within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) in northern Tanzania. It is known for the abundance and diversity of its wildlife and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and an International Biosphere Reserve. Long term records (1963-2012) on herbivore populations, vegetation and rainfall made it possible to analyze historic and project future herbivore population dynamics. NCA was established as a multiple use area in 1959. In 1974 there was a perturbation in that resident Maasai and their livestock were removed from the Ngorongoro Crater. Thus, their pasture management that was a combination of livestock grazing and fire was also removed and 'burning' stopped being a regular occurrence until it was resumed in 2001 by NCA management. The Maasai pasture management would have selected for shorter grasses and more palatable species. Vegetation mapping in 1966-1967 recorded predominately short grasslands. Subsequent vegetation mapping in the crater in 1995 determined that the grassland structure had changed such that mid and tall grasses were dominant. After removal of the Maasai pastoralists from the Ngorongoro Crater in 1974, there were significant changes in population trends for some herbivore species. Buffalo, elephant and ostrich numbers increased significantly during 1974-2012. The zebra population was stable from 1963 to 2012 whereas population numbers of five species declined substantially between 1974 and 2012 relative to their peak numbers during 1974-1976. Grant's and Thomson's gazelles, eland, kongoni, and waterbuck (wet season only) declined significantly in the Crater in both seasons after 1974. In addition, some herbivore species were consistently more abundant inside the Crater during the wet than the dry season. This pattern was most evident for the large herbivore species requiring bulk forage, i.e., buffalo, eland, and elephant. Even with a change in grassland structure, total herbivore biomass remained relatively stable from 1963 to 2012, implying that the crater has a stable carrying capacity. Analyses of rainfall indicated that there was a persistent cycle of 4.83 years for the annual component. Herbivore population size was correlated with rainfall in both the wet and dry seasons. The relationships established between the time series of historic animal counts in the wet and dry seasons and lagged wet and dry season rainfall series were used to forecast the likely future trajectories of the wet and dry season population size for each species under three alternative climate change scenarios.


Journal Details

This article was published in the following journal.

Name: PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Pages: e0212530


DeepDyve research library

PubMed Articles [21572 Associated PubMed Articles listed on BioPortfolio]

Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a ...

Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications.

This paper discusses the recent progress in understanding the properties of transient dynamics in complex ecological systems. Predicting long-term trends as well as sudden changes and regime shifts in...

Herbivore exposure alters ion fluxes and improves salt tolerance in a desert shrub.

Plants have evolved complex mechanisms that allow them to withstand multiple environmental stresses, including biotic and abiotic stresses. Here, we investigated the interaction between herbivore expo...

Large herbivore conservation in a changing world: surface water provision and adaptability allow wildebeest to persist after collapse of long-range movements.

Large herbivores, particularly wide-ranging species, are extensively impacted by land use transformation and other anthropogenic barriers to movement. The adaptability of a species is therefore crucia...

Plant Biology: Evolution of Volatile-Mediated Plant-Plant Interactions.

A new study shows that long-term herbivore exclusion modulates volatile-induced herbivore resistance in tall goldenrod, thus providing evidence for herbivory driving the evolution of volatile-mediated...

Clinical Trials [12169 Associated Clinical Trials listed on BioPortfolio]

HIV-DNA Dynamics in HIV Monoinfected or HIV/HCV Coinfected Patients

New markers of viral activity are now under investigation. Aim of the study is to investigate the efficacy of new antiretroviral drugs by monitoring HIV-DNA dynamics in HIV-positive popula...

Psychosocial Correlates and Coping Strategies Associated With Long-Term Survival of HIV-Infected Children

Children and adolescents with HIV/AIDS are living well beyond life expectancy that was projected for them in the recent past. Little is known about the psychosocial variables that coincid...

A Trial of Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) Treatment for in Vitro Fertilization (IVF)

Our long term goal is to elucidate the role of DHEA on follicular dynamics in the human ovary and to better understand the interaction of DHEA supplementation with other treatments for ovu...

Long-term Outcomes of Chronic Hepatitis C Patients Post Sofosbuvir-based Treatment

Primary Objective: To evaluate the long-term outcomes including liver related morbidity, mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development as compared to those of historical contro...

Effects of Tai Chi on Frailty in Elderly Adults

The aim of this study is determine the effects of Tai Chi exercise, as compared to an education-based control intervention, on cardiovascular and balance system function in older people at...

Medical and Biotech [MESH] Definitions

Estimates of projected population.

The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population.

Morphological or behavioral traits influenced by various living conditions that a population encounters especially as it pertains to REPRODUCTION and survival of the population (see POPULATION DYNAMICS) such as age at first reproductive event, number and size of offspring, and lifespan.

Health insurance to provide full or partial coverage for long-term home care services or for long-term nursing care provided in a residential facility such as a nursing home.

Persons who have experienced prolonged survival of HIV infection. This includes the full spectrum of untreated, HIV-infected long-term asymptomatics to those with AIDS who have survived due to successful treatment.

Quick Search

DeepDyve research library

Searches Linking to this Article